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Autor Tema: Nevreme u Čikagu i okolini - 17.11.2013.  (Pročitano 2284 puta)

Van mreže pavlovic

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Nevreme u Čikagu i okolini - 17.11.2013.
« poslato: 18. Novembar 2013. u 00:20 »
Pozdrav iz Čikaga!

Ilinois, naročito gornja polovina zemlje, je danas imao najjače oluje ove godine. Današnji događaji su ostavili daleko iza sve druge nepogode koje su se desile u 2013.

Nekoliko tornada, od kojih najmanje jedan F4, udari vetra preko 100 km/h, grad do 7 cm u prečniku. Gradić Vašington pored Piorije teško je oštećen.

Od predgrađa Čikaga, od tornada su stradali Menhetn i Frankfort, dole na jugu.

Nažalost ima i mrtvih.

A pre šest dana je padao sneg. Još tada su modeli počeli da naziru razvoj događaja, parametri su svakim izlazom bili sve povoljniji i povoljniji za provalu tornada i centar za predviđanje oluja je sinoć izdao najviši stepen upozorenja za Ilinois i Indijanu.



Citat
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF
   ILLINOIS...INDIANA...WESTERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK
   AREA...PARTS OF EASTERN MISSOURI AND MUCH OF KENTUCKY NORTHEASTWARD
   INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
   AREA...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND WESTERN NEW
   ENGLAND...

   AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS NOW APPEARS UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   REGION.  THIS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
   OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY...PERHAPS PARTS OF THE
   TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...INTO PARTS OF THE
   NORTHEAST BY LATE TONIGHT.  A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE
   EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO GREAT
   LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
   APPEAR LIKELY WITH AN EVOLVING SQUALL LINE.

   ...MID MS/LWR OH VALLEYS THRU THE LWR GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...
   THE ONLY SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE TO THE 13Z OUTLOOK WAS TO BEGIN TO TRIM
   AWAY AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF CATEGORICAL/PROBABILISTIC LINES...WHERE
   FRONTAL PASSAGE IS DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  STRONG
   POST-FRONTAL SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ARE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS
   MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA AND WILL LIKELY REACH THE VICINITY OF THE
   MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   THE DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE FROM WHICH THE FRONT TRAILS IS FORECAST TO
   RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MIGRATES NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE
   MICHIGAN AREA THIS AFTERNOON...INTO EASTERN ONTARIO TONIGHT.
   THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS A 100+ KT WESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK
   NOSES EASTWARD INTO AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  MID-LEVEL FORCING
   FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND COOLING IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS
   FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION
   AND STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

   THE WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS
   APPEARS VERY CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT NOW ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY.  THIS IS GENERALLY ON THE
   LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR /LOWER TO MID 60S
   SURFACE DEW POINTS/ RETURNING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE
   STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
   INSTABILITY AND CAPE.  A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR
   DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT INTO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
   EASTERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/WESTERN OHIO
   AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
   REGION...BEFORE FORCING ALONG THE EASTWARD SURGING COLD FRONT
   CONTRIBUTES TO AN UPSCALE GROWING SQUALL LINE.  GIVEN THE 50-60+ KT
   WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...STORM MOTIONS WILL BE RAPID.  LARGE
   CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE RELATIVELY
   LONG-LIVED/LONG TRACK.

   DUE TO LEADING PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER...BOUNDARY LAYER
   DESTABILIZATION EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER
   OHIO VALLEY BECOMES MORE UNCLEAR...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING
   ALSO LIKELY TO BEGIN TO BE OUTRUN BY THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
   HOWEVER...FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
   A NARROW SQUALL LINE...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LIKELY WILL REMAIN
   FAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING INTO AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
   HOURS...PROBABLY AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
   NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION BY 12Z MONDAY.

   AS SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW STRENGTHENS TO 50-70 KT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
   EASTWARD ADVANCING FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
   AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DOWNWARD
   TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE.  POTENTIALLY
   DAMAGING...CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD
   ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SQUALL LINE...AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION BY LATE
   EVENING.  THE IMPACT OF A POTENTIAL RESIDUAL COOL/STABLE NEAR
   SURFACE LAYER ON SEVERE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IS
   UNCLEAR...BUT A CONTINUING RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE
   ENHANCED CONVECTIVE BAND CERTAINLY DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE
   QUESTION.

   ..KERR/COHEN.. 11/17/2013
 

Prva upozorenja su izdata pre 11h.

NOAA je izdala PDS (particularly dangerous situation) tornado watch, što se retko dešava.

Citat
EL1

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 561
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   840 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     EASTERN IOWA
     ILLINOIS
     NORTHWEST INDIANA
     NORTHEAST MISSOURI
     SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
     LAKE MICHIGAN

   * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 840 AM UNTIL
     400 PM CST.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
     SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
       EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
       MPH POSSIBLE

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
   SCOTT AFB ILLINOIS TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF MADISON WISCONSIN.
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

   &&

   DISCUSSION...ONE OR MORE BROKEN BANDS OF SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND RAPIDLY SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
   WATCH AREA TODAY.  GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
   VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LONG
   TRACKED...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.  LARGE HAIL AND CORRIDORS OF WIND
   DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.

   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.

Na Čikago je nevreme naišlo oko 11.45h. Bilo je izdato upozorenje za jaku oluju.





Ispratio sam dolazak sa plaže:







<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=58VxyyFKbXs" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=58VxyyFKbXs</a>

Kod mene je bilo jakih udara vetra (na zadnjih 40 sekundi snimka se vidi kako kišne zavese kovitlaju), grada veličine zrna pasulja, a palo je oko 20 litara. 1 km severnije u Evanstonu padao je grad do 2.5 cm u prečniku.

Posle oluje:





Krivac za karambol:





Tom Skiling je odlično ispratio situaciju (čikaški najpoznatiji meteorolog), sakupio dosta slika i videa iz raznih delova Ilinoisa, pa pogledajte ovde :

https://www.facebook.com/TomSkilling?hc_location=stream

Današnji dan u prijavama:



Nekoliko videa sa YT 

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JfG5WpTdpI" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-JfG5WpTdpI</a>

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yb5fLbOm-6U" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yb5fLbOm-6U</a>

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5eKFM06Htw" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5eKFM06Htw</a>

Na jugu grada su svirale sirene:

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuZRW40rRHA" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuZRW40rRHA</a>

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0NQN6OJNa8" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0NQN6OJNa8</a>

I za kraj napomena: novembarskih tornada je bilo i ranije u okolini Čikaga.
« Poslednja izmena: 18. Novembar 2013. u 01:36 pavlovic »

Van mreže Milosh

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Odg: Nevreme u Čikagu i okolini - 17.11.2013.
« Odgovor #1 poslato: 18. Novembar 2013. u 07:56 »
Odlična reportaža!  :super: Pravo osvježenje na forumu u danima kad se kod nas ne dešava apsolutno ništa zanimljivo.


padavine u oktobru 2024:
AMS Miljakovac 24.4mm
prosek (Vračar) - 54.8mm

padavine u novembru 2024:
AMS Miljakovac - 49.8mm
prosek (Vračar) - 49.6mm

Van mreže Ljubiša

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Odg: Nevreme u Čikagu i okolini - 17.11.2013.
« Odgovor #2 poslato: 18. Novembar 2013. u 15:48 »
Da, kao što reče Miloš kod nas ništa zanimljivo pa je ovo pravo osveženje. Sve pohvale pavloviću i kao što rekoh, samo strpljenja, snimićeš ti tornado jednog dana. ;)

Van mreže ssoney

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Odg: Nevreme u Čikagu i okolini - 17.11.2013.
« Odgovor #3 poslato: 19. Novembar 2013. u 05:03 »
Ekstra reportaza. Svaka cast!