Tema: Ciklon ''Radmila'' 27. april - 02. maj 2014.

[Dejo]

Ciklon koji ovih dana deluje na vreme u našoj zemlji je Radmila. Njen uticaj počeo je još tokom vikenda u južnim i jugozapadnim predelima, dok je u ostalom delu zemlje duvala košava, ali i to je posledica približavanja ovog ciklona.

GFS


Sinoptička situacija za 29. april u 12h


Danas i sutra bićemo u središtu ciklona, pa će kretanje oblačnosti biti veoma sporo, tu gde nastane jači oblak biće i veće količine padavine u veoma kratkom vremenu. Pored jake grmljavine, treba upozoriti i na mogućnost za grad.

Takvo upozorenje izdao je i ESTOFEX

... Central Europe into the Balkans ...

A few hundred J/kg of CAPE will form again in response to diurnal heating, and another round of scattered to widespread afternoon thunderstorms can be expected. Convective initiation is particularly likely over orographic features and along outflow boundaries over SE Europe. Across Austria, Germany and the Netherlands, it will mostly be tied to a stationary convergence zone which separates cooler air to the SW from warmer air to the NE.
With weak vertical wind shear, single cells and disorganized clusters will be the dominant mode. A couple of flash flood events are likely across the level 1 area. The strongest pulse storms might briefly attain multicellular characteristics and pose a threat of 2-3 cm sized hail. Cloud bases should be low enough to allow an isolated landspout, too, in case more vorticity can be concentrated along outflow boundaries.
The majority of thunderstorms will decay again in the evening, but a few may go on well into the night.

Iako je teško u ovim situacijama proceniti količinu padavina, u proseku će ona biti najveća u južnoj polovini zemlje, a najmanje na severoistoku Vojvodine.

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[Dejo]

Ukupna količina padavina:

Banatski Karlovac* Zlatibor Zrenjanin Nis Leskovac Loznica Pozega Uzicka Vranje Sjenica Krusevac Palic Kuršumlija Kopaonik Valjevo Zaječar

74,7 59,1 54,7 52,6 44,7 41,2 40,5 40,1 39,1 37,4 27,5 25,2 19,3 19,0 17,5

mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm

Dimitrovgrad Crni Vrh Sremska Mitrovica Beograd Cuprija Smederevska Palanka Beograd / Surcin Kragujevac Sombor Vrsac Kikinda Novi Sad Rimski Sancevi Veliko Gradiste Kraljevo Negotin

16,7 15,5 14,1 14,0 12,8 11,9 10,2 10,0 9,6 9,3 8,9 8,3 8,2 4,6 3,6

mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm

Kod: [Izaberi]

*Banatski Karlovac ima nekih nesuglasica u synopu
30.04.2014 u 18:00UTC 17.0mm/12h
01.05.2014 u 00:00UTC 0.1mm/6h
01.05.2014 u 06:00UTC 18.0mm/12h
01.05.2014 u 06:00UTC 17.6mm/24h

Ja sam uzeo ovaj poslednji podatak, jer smatram da je greška u trećem redu.
Prostorni raspored padavina