Pozdrav iz Čikaga!
Ilinois, naročito gornja polovina zemlje, je danas imao najjače oluje ove godine. Današnji događaji su ostavili daleko iza sve druge nepogode koje su se desile u 2013.
Nekoliko tornada, od kojih najmanje jedan F4, udari vetra preko 100 km/h, grad do 7 cm u prečniku. Gradić Vašington pored Piorije teško je oštećen.
Od predgrađa Čikaga, od tornada su stradali Menhetn i Frankfort, dole na jugu.
Nažalost ima i mrtvih.
A pre šest dana je padao sneg. Još tada su modeli počeli da naziru razvoj događaja, parametri su svakim izlazom bili sve povoljniji i povoljniji za provalu tornada i centar za predviđanje oluja je sinoć izdao najviši stepen upozorenja za Ilinois i Indijanu.
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF
ILLINOIS...INDIANA...WESTERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK
AREA...PARTS OF EASTERN MISSOURI AND MUCH OF KENTUCKY NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS NOW APPEARS UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY...PERHAPS PARTS OF THE
TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...INTO PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST BY LATE TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR LIKELY WITH AN EVOLVING SQUALL LINE.
...MID MS/LWR OH VALLEYS THRU THE LWR GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...
THE ONLY SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE TO THE 13Z OUTLOOK WAS TO BEGIN TO TRIM
AWAY AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF CATEGORICAL/PROBABILISTIC LINES...WHERE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. STRONG
POST-FRONTAL SURFACE PRESSURE RISES ARE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS
MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA AND WILL LIKELY REACH THE VICINITY OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
THE DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE FROM WHICH THE FRONT TRAILS IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MIGRATES NORTH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE
MICHIGAN AREA THIS AFTERNOON...INTO EASTERN ONTARIO TONIGHT.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS A 100+ KT WESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK
NOSES EASTWARD INTO AND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MID-LEVEL FORCING
FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND COOLING IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS
FEATURE APPEARS LIKELY TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION
AND STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS
APPEARS VERY CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NOW ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY. THIS IS GENERALLY ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR /LOWER TO MID 60S
SURFACE DEW POINTS/ RETURNING OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND CAPE. A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR
DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT INTO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
EASTERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/WESTERN OHIO
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION...BEFORE FORCING ALONG THE EASTWARD SURGING COLD FRONT
CONTRIBUTES TO AN UPSCALE GROWING SQUALL LINE. GIVEN THE 50-60+ KT
WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...STORM MOTIONS WILL BE RAPID. LARGE
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE RELATIVELY
LONG-LIVED/LONG TRACK.
DUE TO LEADING PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER...BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER
OHIO VALLEY BECOMES MORE UNCLEAR...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING
ALSO LIKELY TO BEGIN TO BE OUTRUN BY THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST
A NARROW SQUALL LINE...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES LIKELY WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING INTO AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...PROBABLY AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION BY 12Z MONDAY.
AS SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW STRENGTHENS TO 50-70 KT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
EASTWARD ADVANCING FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE. POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING...CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS MAY BECOME WIDESPREAD
ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SQUALL LINE...AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION BY LATE
EVENING. THE IMPACT OF A POTENTIAL RESIDUAL COOL/STABLE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER ON SEVERE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IS
UNCLEAR...BUT A CONTINUING RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE
ENHANCED CONVECTIVE BAND CERTAINLY DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
..KERR/COHEN.. 11/17/2013
Prva upozorenja su izdata pre 11h.
NOAA je izdala PDS (particularly dangerous situation) tornado watch, što se retko dešava.
EL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 561
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
840 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IOWA
ILLINOIS
NORTHWEST INDIANA
NORTHEAST MISSOURI
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 840 AM UNTIL
400 PM CST.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
SCOTT AFB ILLINOIS TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF MADISON WISCONSIN.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
DISCUSSION...ONE OR MORE BROKEN BANDS OF SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND RAPIDLY SPREAD EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA TODAY. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LONG
TRACKED...SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND CORRIDORS OF WIND
DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
Na Čikago je nevreme naišlo oko 11.45h. Bilo je izdato upozorenje za jaku oluju.
Ispratio sam dolazak sa plaže:
Kod mene je bilo jakih udara vetra (na zadnjih 40 sekundi snimka se vidi kako kišne zavese kovitlaju), grada veličine zrna pasulja, a palo je oko 20 litara. 1 km severnije u Evanstonu padao je grad do 2.5 cm u prečniku.
Posle oluje:
Krivac za karambol:
Tom Skiling je odlično ispratio situaciju (čikaški najpoznatiji meteorolog), sakupio dosta slika i videa iz raznih delova Ilinoisa, pa pogledajte ovde :
https://www.facebook.com/TomSkilling?hc_location=streamDanašnji dan u prijavama:
Nekoliko videa sa YT
Na jugu grada su svirale sirene:
I za kraj napomena: novembarskih tornada je bilo i ranije u okolini Čikaga.
Tema: Nevreme u Čikagu i okolini - 17.11.2013. (Pročitano 2286 puta)