Hvala ljudi! Nadam se da uspevam da prenesem deo magije iz Aleje!
Ostao sam dužan video ludog, gotovo neprestanog sevanja iz squalla kod Aberdina u Južnoj Dakoti 10.8.2016.
Sondaže, mada je sondaža u Aberdinu urađena pošto je prvi talas oluja prošao i pokupio dobar deo energije.
SPC outlooks
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM
COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND EAST AND NORTHEAST
MONTANA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A MARGINAL RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST OVER A PORTION OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER WA/ORE WILL SHIFT EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...REACHING WESTERN MT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM AND IN THE WAKE
OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO...HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS DEVELOPS ACROSS
THIS AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MN REACHING CENTRAL
MN AND NORTHWEST WI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING PORTION OF
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL...GENERALLY E-W...ACROSS NORTHERN SD
AND EXTEND WESTWARD TO AN AREA OF CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHEAST
WY/SOUTHEAST MT REGION. A WIND SHIFT SHOULD EXTEND WESTWARD FROM
THIS LEE LOW THROUGH SOUTHERN MT. PORTIONS OF THE FRONT/WIND SHIFT
IN NORTHERN SD TO SOUTHERN MT MAY ADVANCE NORTHWARD SOME THIS
EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WA/ORE CLOSED LOW...WHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVES FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
...ND/SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
GIVEN THE EXPECTED HEIGHT RISES WITH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS
THIS REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND A CAPPING
INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML PLUME...STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS
EXPECTED TO PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN
VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO SD TODAY...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 F /CURRENTLY RESIDING IN KS TO PARTS OF NEB/ POTENTIALLY
REACHING NORTHERN SD BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED THERMODYNAMICS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCAPE OF 2000-2500
J/KG AND PERHAPS UP TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. VERTICALLY
VEERING WINDS...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH THE
STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL...SOME
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING TO 40-45 KT INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO ND AS THE LLJ AUGMENTS CONVERGENCE...WITH
STORMS NORTH OF THE STALLED/WARM FRONT BEING PRIMARILY ELEVATED WITH
A THREAT FOR HAIL.
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH A
TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA...NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A FEW
STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING.
...SYNOPSIS...
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK FROM WESTERN MT TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH A BAND OF SOUTHWESTERLY 500-MB FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MN/NORTHERN WI. THIS
PRIMARY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LAG THE CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK REGION...WITH THE PRIMARY
FORCING MECHANISM FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEING LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL MN WESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF THE ND/SD BORDER. A LEE
CYCLONE SHOULD BE LOCATED IN NORTHWEST SD AT 12Z TODAY AND WILL
TRACK EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT...REACHING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE SD/ND BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND INTO
EASTERN ND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
AN MCS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINGERING SEVERE-WEATHER
THREAT...WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF DAY 1 ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL
AND PART OF NORTHERN MN...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY BE PRESENT
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND. NCEP-HRRR-PARALLEL MODEL
SUGGESTS THIS EARLY PERIOD CONVECTION WILL ADVANCE EAST AND WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST MN AND
NORTHWEST WI.
MEANWHILE...AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ATTENDANT TO THE EARLY DAY
MCS...AND NEW ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WAA NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT THIS MORNING SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING AND THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A
SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE WILL BE LOCATED NEAR
AND JUST NORTH OF THE EXPECTED PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL MN TODAY. WHILE STORMS MAY CONTINUE
WITHIN THE WAA REGIME NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME SURFACE BASED NEAR THE WARM FRONT /EAST OF
THE SURFACE LOW/ THIS AFTERNOON WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING OF A
MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. STORMS THAT
DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE AN ADDED THREAT FOR A TORNADO
OR TWO...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INTO
MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY. STORM POTENTIAL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
SHOULD TEND TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK FORCING ALOFT...THOUGH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 100 F COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STORMS TO FORM AROUND PEAK HEATING. OTHERWISE...A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WAA FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST...WITH
ONE OR TWO MCS/S DEVELOPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT
PRODUCING A PRIMARY THREAT OF STRONG AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
Tema: Lov na oluje 9. i 10.8.2016. - SD i pomalo MT, WY i ND (Pročitano 1926 puta)