UHHHHHH dobar ESTOFEX za danas
.....Dakle,on se slaže sa mnom,u celoj Srbiji pljuskovi i grmljavine ,a 1 stepen upozorenja u većem delu zemlje,uključujući i Vrnjačku Banju !!!
ESTOFEX
NE Italy, S and E Austria,W Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, NW Balkans...
Widespread thunderstorms will probably be ongoing at the beginning of the forecast period across the eastern Alps and their southern flank. Locally this may result in very high precipitation amounts. As the mid/upper-level trough progresses, the storm activity is expected to translate eastward and northeastward. There, moist air will be available, with surface dew points around 20 C. In combinayton with solar heating, 1000-2000 J/kg CAPE are expected to develop within this air-mass. GFS appears to have trouble simulating the high dew points across Hungary and Serbia, so the current forecast may be a bit conservative.
An upgrade to level 2 could be necessary for N Croatia, Serbia, Hungary, and perhaps parts of Slovakia, too.
Current thinking is that the approaching trough will trigger surface-based convective development across the Pannonian Plain in the early afternoon. With about 20 m/s of deep-layer shear, the storms will probably include supercells capable of producing large hail, and some damaging winds. The storms will probably soon become linearly organized, especially across W Hungary/E Austria, and later further south. One or more MCSes with an attendant wind gust threat are expected.
