Tema: Joe Bastardi i drugovi-European Blog

[Ljubiša]

Kladim se da on misli da ovde zive teroristi...

  ;D

[gencic]

Kako briga pa zive tu i oni koji slave i ovaj bozic

Naravno, rekao sam u globalu.Ali i to sto slave ovi pravoslavni, moj gabesz20, bolje da ne slave.
Inace, ovo vise potice od onog, kad god gledam tako neke internacionalne prognoze, svi gledaju beli Bozic, oce li biti, nece biti...A ustvari to je sve po gregorijanskom kalendaru, pa onda se to ne vazi za pravoslavce.
Inace, moja je opservacija da je cesto jedan bozic bio beo, a drugi(po julijanskom) topao i obrnuto.

Uvek sam umeo da lupim, iako naravno nisam ni nacionalno ni verski ostrascena osoba. 

[ciklon]

Posebnu napomenu cu da mu napisem da posle NG objavi prognozu i za pravoslavni Bozic, ravnopravno treba da budemo zastupljeni, ravnopravnost nego sta drugarice i drugovi !!! 

Nije on blesav zna da mi nismo verski fundamentalisti i ekstremisti, on je Italijan nas bivsi komsija. Ako te bolje poznaje od komsije. 

[Dejo]

Inace, moja je opservacija da je cesto jedan bozic bio beo, a drugi(po julijanskom) topao i obrnuto.

I po meni je tako koliko me sećanje služi, ali otprilike 80% je beli Božić u januaru, a samo 20% beli Božić u decembru, što meni ne odgovara.

Dobar je naš Joe

[ptprince]

Dobar je naš Joe

Naš Joe nije Bastardi, već Admin. ;D

[gabesz20]

Naš Joe nije Bastardi, već Admin. ;D

;D

[ciklon]

WEDNESDAY DEC 29

CAN I BOTHER YOU FOR A MINUTE.

First of all watch closely boys and girls how the core of the worst cold the rest of the winter is Southeast of where it has been. The Thaw you see now in the northwest is not the end of winter, but the end of that part of the winter.. more back and forth now for the UK and Ireland, which is fun and certainly not done, but the worst is over relative to averages. However over the heart of the continent..youve seen bad, and you may again see just as bad ( I dont have the heart to say worse)

, I want to ask you a question. If you were in a fight and thought your opponent was finished and all of a sudden he hit you with some thundering shots, wouldnt you at least think that the fight was not finished. At the least.. okay? Common sense? Now even though I BELIEVE this is the start of the cooling over the next 20-30 years in a jagged fashion down, so we are back in the late 70s according to sat temps ( again all the adjustment to temps being made by people is in the pre satellite era where they are free to do whatever they want with no current measuring crosscheck, which should also make you wonder), I am not willing to say, okay you guys are cooked. You know why? Because even though I think they are, I understand that no fight is done till its over and one side is driven from the field. So my personal feeling that its over really doesnt matter, what matters is that you have people that are ignoring major physical realities either by being deceptive, or ignorant of what temperature really is.. a measure of energy! And the fact is the higher the average temp, is the more the variance in temp has an effect on the global energy budget. I have talked with Joe D Aleo about a work up of this to drive home the point about the blocking. It takes much less energy to warm a gas 10 degrees from from the surface up when the average temp is lets say 0, then it does to cool the atmosphere a few degrees where the normal temp is 40. And when we try to quantify the amount of energy being lost in the tropical pacific by the cooling there, it BLOWS AWAY the warming in the arctic. Its an effective governor on the earths temps, and is a precursor to what will be a major switch in the northern hemisphere.. and once that happens, with the land masses, the temps will really fall. Anyone been watching the southern hemisphere, where alot of the first warning shots started to be fired a few years ago? You can make all the excuses you want, but if you are going to argue the contraction of northern hemisphere sea ice is a sign of warming , since the continents are warmed because of previous ocean cycles, then you cant walk away from the reality of what has to be going on in the hemisphere with the most ocean, and hence a higher energy consideration where sea ice is increasing! Only in a world of fantasy, can you think you can have it both ways!!! And the physics of the situation argues against you trying to use the temperature as a metric to determine whether the climate is actually warming in a permanent fashion, or their is simply a distortion of where temperatures are being measured higher, since the amount of energy DECREASES rapidly with temp loss. It takes next to nothing to raise temps that much in the arctic, it takes a heck of alot to drop them in the tropics!!!

But all this being said, you can see the crash already starting as forecasted here back in the spring on the temps. So if you want to use temps as the metric, I say the fight is still on, and on big time and these people saying its over, or explaining that a fight back is a sign they are winning, are either being deceptive or delusional. to the idea that they are absolutely right and what is happening is because of what they say. At the very least, its a sign that we should let it play out.

The real thing we should be looking at is if there is an accumulation of energy in the earth, atmosphere system. Simple temperatures given equal weight energy wise to low and high values would be laughed out of any classroom if one is trying to quantify the total energy!. Its basic . why do you think there is weather.. because of the constant fight to even out imbalance. Why is their overrunning? Warmer more moist air with more energy cant push out a cold stable air mass with less energy, so its forced up and over. the molecules get more excited when they are warmed.. etc etc.

In a way, the whole thing is a bit amusing, if it wasnt that it could be enslaving

ciao for now ****

[ptprince]

Topla voda.

[freeze]

PATTERN SHOWS EXACTLY WHAT I WAS TRYING TO GET ACROSS ABOUT REST OF WINTER.

Look at what has happened the past 5 days, and you get the point I am trying to make about the rest of the winter. The thaw has hit the UK and Ireland, but the further southeast you go, the answer to warm is NO! The last 4 days in Berlin have been a mirror of the month. They had 4 inches of snow and temps 10 below normal.. The month had over 40 inches of snow and temps 10 below normal! But we go to London and we find that temps have moderated to 2.7 above normal the past 4 days. Go to Belfast and its over 7 above normal the past few days.

This is what I am trying to get across, that the rest of the winter over the northwest is much more back and forth, while the target area for the totality of the cold winter is further southeast. While the worst relative to averages is over in the northwest, from Italy to the Balkans its not, the rest of the winter will be colder than what has occurred already, with pushes into southeast Europe ( Turkey) in a back and forth manner. But one can see, and I am sure when we total it all up, we will see, why I had areas further southeast as getting the worst of the winter.

In any case, it appears that the weather will make my point for me. Doesnt mean winter is over for the northwest.. it means the worst month is by. Further southeast.. no such luck

 

[tamnavac]

sto nam vec ne rece i kakvo leto se u evropi ocekuje, kad sve zna sto ni jedan ozbiljan meteorolog ne zna, upravo naspram njegove prognoze za ovu zimu na Balkanu, nase resorno Ministarstvo za vanredne situacije uradilo je akcioni plan za odbranu Srbije odvelekih snegova i meceva koje nam je on prognozirao i jakih orkanskih-hladnih vetrova koji ce pojedine regione nase zemlje ostaviti danima bez struje................................. ....I.T.D. Ja se nesto dosad ne nagledah tog scenarija njegovog nigde u Evropi, mozda Danska samo je imala takvu situaciju do sada, ostali deo Evrope manje vise normalne vremenske prilike.
Cikago belezi neuobicajeno tople dane za ovaj period a njegova prognoza za taj deo sveta je diametralno suprotna od stanja na terenu..............Ima toliko priznatih svetskih meteorologa, pozivajte se na njih a ne na ovog senzacionalistu...........mi Srbi bas imamo kratko pamcenje za sve pa i u ovom slucaju

[ciklon]

Sad sam tek shvatio, pa mi ne pratimo istog Joe Bastardija!
Eto zbog cega dolazi do razlicitih zakljucaka....

[mladen]

Istina jeste da je Bastardi senzacionalista, ali opet draži mi je on nego recimo ovi iz našeg Ministarstva za zaštitu životne sredine koji kažu kako će Srbija do 2030. godine postati Sahara, i slični. Potrebna je kontra, pa makar to bio šampion u bodi bildingu. Čitao sam da su mnogi priznati svetski meteorolozi koji su se usprotivili tezama da će Njujork za 50 godina biti potopljen i sl. dobili otkaze. I zato je bilo koji glas koji se suprostavlja takvim tezama dobrodošao. Takođe, Bastardiju se mnogošta može i oprostiti s obzirom da i nije meteorolog već zaljubljenik u meteorologiju.

[gencic]

omg! stvarno?! ja negde procitah da ima diplomu.

[tamnavac]

Bilo kako, i da ima i da nema diplomu,nekako mi je suvise snegoljubac,poklanja suvise paznje toj pojavi, za njega kao meteorloga svaka vrsta padavina i svaki tip vremena treba da je isto tretiran, a ne sneg ce padati, ovde i onde............a pola Evrope i preskoci jel to mu nije zanimljivo u datom trenutku, ako vec postoji fenomen El Ninjo-a, onda ove godine niko sa takvom sigurnom tvrdnjom kakvo ce biti vreme u narednom peridu ne bi trebao da izlazi i da se izlece mnogo unapred, ispadosmo smesni.
Nego samo jedna mala digresija,da li bi ovo zahladjenje u nasem ravnicarskom delu Srbije trebali da gledamo kao hladni talas obzirom da ako uzmemo da da nije bilo magle ovih 7 dana kod nas bi verovatno temperatura dosezala i do 7 C, da li ovaj period iza nas je zaista bio hladni talas po visini.
Odnosno ako nije to bi znacilo da mi od pocetka zime da nije bilo magle bili bi u plusu a samim tim i iznad proseka sa temperaturama za ovo doba godine?
Jeste da nije mesto za ovu temu ovde al me mrzelo da se prebacujem.....

[freeze]

Tamnavac, prvo, procitaj kako se ova tema zove..
Drugo, ako znas nekog meteorologa koji se bavi vremenskom prognozom za podrucije evrope i pri tom i samo spomene ime Srbije, i nebitno, ne mora ni da spomene, ali da se bavi ovom tematikom i o tome povremeno pise i to ostavlja svima na uvid, ti otvori novu temu, pa pisi nesto o toj licnosti.
Trece, bio on sa diplomom ili ne, covek je zaljubljenik u meteorologiju i kada bi ovi iz rhmz-a makar i malo vise voleli posao kojim se bave (cast izuzecima) na njihovom sajtu naslo bi se svasta pametnije, tacnije i poucnije..
Sto se tice promasaja u sezonskoj prognozi na koju ti aludiras, uopste me ne cudi sto za sada promasuje, jer i da je pogodio to bi bila puka slucajnost. Ne postoji za sada nikakva tehnologija na svetu koja bi mogla prognozirati tacno vreme duze od 3-4 dana..

Nema potrebe mrzeti coveka samo zato sto snega nema ove zime za sada, a on rekao da bi ga moglo biti :!:..
 

[gencic]

Bilo kako, i da ima i da nema diplomu,nekako mi je suvise snegoljubac,poklanja suvise paznje toj pojavi, za njega kao meteorloga svaka vrsta padavina i svaki tip vremena treba da je isto tretiran, a ne sneg ce padati, ovde i onde............a pola Evrope i preskoci jel to mu nije zanimljivo u datom trenutku, ako vec postoji fenomen El Ninjo-a, onda ove godine niko sa takvom sigurnom tvrdnjom kakvo ce biti vreme u narednom peridu ne bi trebao da izlazi i da se izlece mnogo unapred, ispadosmo smesni.
Nego samo jedna mala digresija,da li bi ovo zahladjenje u nasem ravnicarskom delu Srbije trebali da gledamo kao hladni talas obzirom da ako uzmemo da da nije bilo magle ovih 7 dana kod nas bi verovatno temperatura dosezala i do 7 C, da li ovaj period iza nas je zaista bio hladni talas po visini.
Odnosno ako nije to bi znacilo da mi od pocetka zime da nije bilo magle bili bi u plusu a samim tim i iznad proseka sa temperaturama za ovo doba godine?
Jeste da nije mesto za ovu temu ovde al me mrzelo da se prebacujem.....

Par stvari je jasno kao dan:

-Covek je na takvoj poziciji i moze da izlazi u javnost sa prognozama kakvim on hoce, za koji god deo on hoce i sa odgovarajucim dometom prognoze.Jednostavno je to njegova stvar, kao i nasa da li cemo ga slusati ili ne.

-Sneg, led, ledena kisa i jaki mrazevi su ''najinteresantnije'' stvari zimi i to je prosto tako.Sigurno nece covek koji radi prognozu za kontinent da ide regiju po regiju i da naglasava, ovde ovako, onde onako.Stoji da je snegoljubac, ali ne bi rekao da je pristrasan.

-Ja stvarno ne znam kako bi mogli dani sa maksimalnom dnevnom t ispod -5c da ne budu hladni talas.Nema tu, sta bi bilo kad bi bilo.Jednostavno, to su zabelezene temperature na stanicama i kao takve idu u godisnjake i klimatoloske analize.Nema tu sad, bila je inverzija, pa ne znam, ne vazi se i tako to...
Ako hocemo vec da uvidimo srednju temperaturu u nekom debljem sloju, onda mozemo da se sluzimo podacima o debljini sloja od 1000mb do 500mb, tzv. relativna topografija 500/1000.Ona ce svakako pokazati kakvi su termicki uslovi u globalu nad datim podrucjem, ali to nije znacajno za klimatoloske analize u jednoj tacki(recimo jedna stanica, pa sracunavanja njene srednje godisnje, mesecne temp. itd.), barem ne ovo sto mi slusamo na televiziji kao najtopliji mesec od te i te godine...

Ne postoji za sada nikakva tehnologija na svetu koja bi mogla prognozirati tacno vreme duze od 3-4 dana..

Delimicno da, delimicno ne.Sta se podrazumeva pod tacnim?

Ako je to 100%, onda nikad necemo imati tacnu prognozu ni sat unapred jer ce nam neka decimala uvek faliti.
Sa druge strane, ne bi rekao da modeli ne mogu da predvide nekih 5-6 dana prilicno tacno.Uverili smo se u to mnogo puta.Ali, ima tu i nekih gresaka i 24 h unapred, tako da je poruka jasna.Dzaba modeliranje atmosfere, ako nema sustinskog razumevanja atmosferskih procesa.

[ciklon]

Kolega Gencic kao i obicno o svakom detalju vodi racuna pa posle njegovog posta nema sta da se doda, sve je receno.

Hladan talas je u decembru na nasem kontinentu bio vise nego ocigledan, vise od pola Evrope se smrzavalo a i snega nije ne dostajalo.
Sad, kod nas je situacija malo drugacija jer imamo ove zime hladan sever i "mlak" jug zemlje ali takva je situacija, bila je mnogo puta i obrnuta.
Prognoza doticnog je bila dosta precizna za prvi zimski mesec i nema tu puno mudrovanja, jednostavno je tako.

EDIT: Samo da ubacim njegovu biografiju da se ljudi ne zbunjuju, on jeste diplomirani meteorolog.

Joe Bastardi

Joe was born in Providence, R.I., on July 18, 1955. At the age of 5, Joe moved to College Station, Texas, where they stayed for five years until moving back East. From the age of 10 until he graduated high school, Joe lived in Somers Point, N.J.

After graduation, Joe enrolled at the Pennsylvania State University, where he was a member of the varsity wrestling squad. He graduated with a bachelor’s degree in meteorology from Penn State on March 4, 1978; the very next day he started at AccuWeather, the world’s largest commercial weather organization. Joe has risen steadily through the ranks, receiving promotions to Forecaster and Senior Forecaster for his excellent work. Today he is an Expert Senior Forecaster at AccuWeather, and he is heard daily on a number of radio stations. His daily weather column is the most extensive in the business and has helped establish him, along with his videos, as the internet’s go-to guy for long-range and hurricane forecasting.

Joe married Jessica Jane Strunck in the summer of 1992. Jessica, a 1990 graduate of Penn State, is an assistant women’s gymnastics coach at the university, after having captained the team before graduating. They have a daughter, Jessica Ann, born Dec. 7, 1998 and one son, Garrett Matthew, born on Feb. 5, 1996 — Weatherman’s Day. Garrett has already shown a love for the weather...like father, like son.

Both Joe and Jessica are competitive "drug–free" bodybuilders. Joe captured his weight classes in the over 35 and over 45–year–old brackets in the United States Natural bodybuilding championships in 2001, then outdid that by winning the overall title in October of 2002. However, he can never match his wife's accomplishments. Jessica, won the 1996 Central Pennsylvania title exactly 8 months after giving birth to Garret, then won her division of the 1999 NPC Middle Atlantic National Qualifier, exactly 10 months after giving birth to Jessica Ann!

Joe has also trained many high school and college athletes in football and wrestling. In addition, Joe helped in a recent run for the Gold by Freestyle National heavyweight champion, Kerry McCoy, whom he still advises. He is the strength and nutrition counselor for former Penn State's head wrestling coach John Fritz's Keystone wrestling camp. John also happens to be daughter Jessie's Godfather.

[mladen]

To je to!
Svetu je potrebno vise meteorologa koji vole svoj posao.

[freeze]

YOU KNOW I LOVE YOU, YOU KNOW I LOVE WINTER, BUT AS I WAS SAYING.. ITS JUST NOT THAT COLD.

Nor does it look like its going to get that way anytime soon. In any case I dont think we are flooding with warmth that would give AGW people reason to blame warmth on global warming,but the back and forth pattern that will make even the most die hard lover of winter come to realize that in Ireland and england, the worst was early.

Next year we can try to make it the whole winter ( ha ha)

 

[freeze]

MAJOR THAW ACROSS MUCH OF EUROPE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.

I will be working on the rest of the winter update and put that out over the weekend. However the cold is reversing now all over for a while, with the source region of air for the northwest Maritime, the source region further south and east coming from the southwest and the icy grip of winter which has had a choke hold so far is letting up. The southeast part of Europe, which has not had it as bad as further northwest with only one or two cold invasions and alot of warmth also stays warm

So now here is the question. Is this a flip and the worst is over for the areas targeted in the center of the continent that I have it coldest this winter, and will it return and if it does, further south and east. My take is that the latter part of winter, will see the worst of winter where it has not been that cold, the northwest has seen their worst and the central part will reload more cold. Certainly the idea of thawing was the best one.. talk of the coldest winter ever I think can be put on the backburner.. for now, that was never the part of my forecast. But this is a major Jan thaw, and the question I will answer in my next update will be having to do with this being the end, or just a break. I think the break part is right, but one that is saving much of Europe from would have really been a problem. I think though, giving what should be becoming obvious to watchers of these things, the days of thinking warm warm warm are over, and quite the opposite in the coming years and decades the populace should understand the honeymoon is over, the marriage of low solar and reversing oceanic cycles along with a third party ( lets not go any further with non weather implications...ha ha) the volcanic activity should raise eyebrows among the rationale. Among others, short of being frozen out of ones abode, there is no getting attention

be looking for that

Hmmmmmmm.....    :blahblah: ili ima nesto u tome...
Bilo kako bilo, ukoliko do kraja januara ne zahladni u nasim predelima drasticno, omasio je sa svojom sezonkom.., again..