Tema: Joe Bastardi i drugovi-European Blog

[ptprince]

Pažljivo sam pročitao ceo tekst. Shvatam da ptice mogu biti pomenute u ironičnom smislu, jer 'psi ne lete'. Ali kakve to veze ima sa promenama vremena i klime? Koristeći tako nešto kao paralelu za nonsense povezivanja (navedeno je CO₂ i globalno zagrevanje) je čisto politiziranje. To nikakve veze nema sa meteorologijom. Jedan meteorolog to ne bi trebalo sebi da dozvoljava. Ako to radi, postaje političar. Baš kao Al Gore.
Ali ako se zevzeči, pa piše gloposti kao i ja...

Globalno otopljavanje poprima dramatične razmere. Ne samo da se otopio sav led na Severnom polu, već je okeanska voda počela da isparava. Tako, Tihi okean je pretropeo isparavanje oko metar vode, što je dovelo do toga da su okeanska ostrva porasla. Obale kontinenata su se takođe izdigle, ali ne vidi se njihov veliki porast što zbog njihovih samih velikih dimenzija.
Ukoliko globalno zagrevanje nastavi ovim tempom, do 2100. godine se očekuje pad nivoa okeana za još šest metara, što će imati za posledicu ne samo rast okeanskih ostrva, već će ponegde doći do njihovog spajanja.

...onda je zabavljač.

Slažem se da je učešće CO₂ tako minorno kao vlat kose na mostu od 1 km dužine. Ali da li ga samo ta konstatacija čini odličnim meteorologom? Onaj ko se razume u sve, obično nije baš svestan svojim ograničenja u vezi znanja. Žao mi je ako se tako ruše mitovi i legende o pojedinim meteorolozima. Ja sam sa svojim legendama jako rano. Ipak, ne mogu da shvatim da je neko potpuno uspešan u prognozi i u klimatologiji. Svaki meteorolog ima svoju specijalnost gde je najbolji. Možda Bastardi ima svoju specijalnost da piše kolumne... Zato se vraćam na moju inicijalnu rečenicu:

Kamo lepe sreće da ja mogu tako slobodno da lupetam i da me nije sramota.

Ja više volim da radim. Popularizacija meteorologije se ne radi pisanjem kolumni, već radom i predstavljanjem tog rada, koji se kasnije primenjuje, bilo u meteorologiji, bilo u nemeteorološkom svetu.

[ciklon]

TUESDAY NOON LONDON TIME.

Enjoying this summer? Arctic sea ice right where it should be!

Let's see, 4F above normal, precip 26%. If anything, I was not warm enough and not dry enough. However fear not, we still have the rest of the summer to go and the forecast for a bit warmer, by drier than normal looks good. I hope everyone is barbecuing. And you should enjoy it, another colder-than-normal winter is on the way.

The site:

http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/s smi1_ice_area.png

shows my sea ice forecast this year is spot on. (If you were reading earlier, I expected a big drop that would get it below last year but not as low as 2007). And for the ministers of propaganda on this matter that don't understand how this works, you will see NEXT SUMMER has the highest amount of sea ice since the early part of last decade. Sad to say the ice will rebuild... two steps forward one step back.

But I have observed the cackling of delight at the demise of the ice cap this summer with amusement. Because 1) The THICKNESS OF THE ICE is greater and 2) The Polar temps, courtesy of the cooling that is starting are lower than normal this summer.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

All one need do is some deductive reasoning (if you knew what was coming, and one comes up with a logical conclusion). In fact, a look at the site cryosphere today shows that amazingly the Northern Hemisphere sea ice, though well below normal, may have already reached its low point, and it was even to last year (if this is right, I actually over estimated melt).

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png

Now I will keep making forecasts from time to time, then you can judge on what is right or wrong. It seems though that either I have Rasputin whispering in my ear, or some things said months before seem to have a way of showing up. I will have to trust you were reading earlier on these matters; if not, well nothing I can do about that.

In any case, enjoy your summer. Another cold winter looks to be lurking and hopefully you will remember the summer barbecues this year in winter... and remember he mentioned winter was going to be cold.

Ciao for now.

[ciklon]

Ovoga puta nije gospodin Bastardi u pitanju vec Jim Andrews, s malim zakasnjenjem kacim ovu njegovu najavu vrucina koje dolaze a koje mi vec pocinjemo da osecamo, bice jos gore od ovoga!

Europe Hot Spell Could Become Major Heat Wave
Jul 6, 2010; 12:42 PM ET

MID, EAST EUROPE LOOKING AT BIG WARMUP

Numerical forecast scenarios are setting up much of Europe for what could turn out to be its hottest weather of the summer.

The thrust of these scenarios is that low pressure will settle near the Black Sea late in the week as high pressure aloft shunts the core of jet stream far northward in its trek through Europe.

For at least the weekend through early next week, a corridor from Germany and Poland east and northeast to western and northwestern Russia would have widespread temperatures at least 4 C to 8 C above normal. High temperature could easily reach 10 C and more above normal.

Put another way, cities from Berlin and Warsaw to Kiyev, Minsk, Moscow and St. Petersburg may well reach the 33 C to 35 C range.

MAJOR CITIES HAVE ALREADY FELT SOME OF SUMMER'S HEAT

Since the start of summer, it has already been hot in much of this broad swathe. Berlin and Warsaw have seen 33 C. Highs of nearly 34 C in Moscow broke records.

Earlier in June, Minsk hit 30 C and Kiyev soared to 34 C. St. Petersburg has yet to see the 30-degree mark.

Early "hints" from the GFS numerical model are that even worse heat will follow during the second week of the forecast.

[ciklon]

Od 09.07.2010

FRIDAY 9 PM
Much needed rain on the way for northwest Europe

The droughty conditions that have plagued much of northwest Europe this summer will be dented ( in Ireland and parts of Great Britain, more than dented) over the next week to 10 days. People have to remember that in a seasonal forecast, variations away from the mean are common. In this column, I will give ideas as an example of what I can do as a forecaster... its like a glorified commercial. So I said our summer would be a bit warmer than normal and drier than normal, and the place of verification is London. Warm and Dry right now are understatements, but the fact is its supposed to be more of a "barbecue summer" than last year, and it is. But the next 10 days will be exceptionally wet in much of Ireland and GB

Now we are looking at a very serious summer pattern for much of the central and eastern part of Europe the rest of the summer. Lets remember that El Ninos dying are nasty summers on average in Europe and in the states. It was the post nino of 02-03...in the summer of 03, that we saw the major heat across Europe. 05 and 07 were not as bad, but it got warm. This looks like it is warmer than 05 and 07, not as extreme as 03, but still warmer southeast and east of Ireland and GB than it is back in those areas.

I cut one more video on the coming cool down today, so I can be clear, stacking what has happened with the earths temps against CFS forecast data, and then bringing on what its saying down the road, which is plainly a colder downturn than the one we had after the 06-07 nino. You can see for yourself.

thanks for reading, ciao for now *****

[ciklon]

MONDAY 11:30 P.M.
GLOBAL TEMPS GO BELOW LAST YEAR!

For the first time this year, the global temps have retreated below last year's level.

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/

In addition, the polar temp is almost 2 F below normal now and is very close to freezing.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/sea-ice-page/

Scroll down to find.

MONDAY NOON

REMEMBER WHERE YOU HEARD ABOUT GLOBAL COOLING.

For quite a while now, I have doing a lot to show how the models are now seeing what I started forecasting several months ago, as far as the La Nina and the coming global cooling. Well I see a former employee here is now blogging on AOL about the same thing. Like the hurricane forecasts, I expect a lot of people to pile in the boat as to what I am saying about the much cooler overall global temp. In Europe, it should be a cold winter (again) for most, but in the states, it may be warmer especially in the southern Plains.

In addition, the blogger then goes on to explain why the CFS may do better in the winter, and it's almost word-for-word my explanations as to why it can't see its hand in front of its face when change is occurring but it does better in the La Ninas. If that was so apparent, why no posts about the cool summer it had beforehand and how poorly it did then.

Many of you will see me reference someone from another blog even though they are competitors of ours. I go out of my way to give credit where credit is due. If I find out someone was saying something before me in a public issuance, I make darn surethey get credit. Occasionally, it gets by me. In this case, I know the author of the idea on AOL is reading what I am saying. If he is not, then all I can say is welcome to the global cooling party... there will be many more joining the next few months.


SUNDAY 2 P.M.

HEY ALL YOU ICE LOVERS.. A GREAT LINK TO WATCH THE ICE GLOBALLY

http://wattsupwiththat.com/sea-ice-page/

Cut away the rhetoric, and go to the facts on GLOBAL sea ice by looking at everything.

BTW, one of the charts, the DMI polar temps shows the refusal of polar temps to reach normal this summer. It's too early to say if the current drop-off is the start of the seasonal decline, but it's obvious now what is going on up there as far as the start of the turn to cooler that will be going on globally.

Let's remember, that the scoring point for the summer forecast is London where in spite of the inclement weather that has struck much of Great Britain and Ireland the past week to 10 days, we continue to run way above normal temperatures and below normal precipitiation. Overall, the pattern in northwestern Europe the rest of the summer is warmer than normal, but it's the continent into western Russia that will bake the worst. It won't quite get to 2003 but will be very warm. BTW, this is common, and I brought this up in the summer idea I had for you back before the season. I don't know how many of you read it, but the reversal of the El Nino and the warm Mediterranean were big keys to a warm summer in much of Europe.. and that is what set up in 2003!

Reversing nino, warm Mediterranean, warm amo... well, you get the picture.


SATURDAY 11 P.M.

IF MY POST BELOW WAS NOT ENOUGH:

http://kirkmyers.wordpress.com/2010/07/17/miskolczi-destroys-greenhouse-theory/


FRIDAY 6 P.M.

ADDRESSING NOAA'S PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN ON GLOBAL WARMING

The end of the global warming debate (among the rational) is near.

The coming drop of global temperatures over the next year, to levels not seen since the 1990s, should put to an end to the AGW argument for good except for the most radical elements. The fact is that CO2 levels have increased by 5% over the past 10 years, while global temperatures have essentially held steady. The El Nino spike of the past year, which was forecast by me over a year ago, is now being used as evidence of global warming and of course the heat waves are being used. This was also something I said back in March, that the least the people blaming global warming for snow could wait until the hot summer and big hurricane season that I was forecasting came (which they are). However, also coming is major drop of .5 to .7C in the global temps which will take us below normal for a time. The disconnect with CO2 will be obvious to anyone that looks. In addition, the reason for the drop will easily be linked with the cooling of the Pacific, which will remain in its cool stage for the next 30 years. Once the Atlantic, still warm, goes into its cool stage in 10-15 years, global temps will fall even further, back to where they were in the 1970s.

The recovery of the northern ice caps will become more obvious in a two-steps-up, one-step-back fashion, but the Southern Hemisphere ice will retreat back to near normal. Overall global ice is right on top of normal and has had no change in the past 30 years.

Let's see who is right on this. Check out the video on the dramatic drop showing up on other climate models now.

Ciao for now.

[ptprince]

Zanima me šta bi dotični rekao na ovu vlagurinu, nego pametuje sa pet hiljada kilometara, iz klimatizovane prostorije, i živo ga zabole za Evropu (kao mene za Ameriku).

[ciklon]

Hahahaha....
Prince sve je ovo deo naseg hobija(tebi posla) pa makar spadalo i u kategoriju "bad"!

[ptprince]

Jeste, ciklon. Zato, samo za tebe, odgovarajuća pesma
(klikni ovde).

[ciklon]

WEDNESDAY 3 P.M.

DANG!

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

You have to understand, 2C below normal at the warmest time of the year, or 2C above normal at this time of the year, is a much greater variance than the big swings at the cold time of the year. You should go back and look at their data back to 1958 and you will be hard pressed to find a colder summer in the Arctic through this time of the year!

[slovenka]

Američki meteorolozi ovako predviđaju jesen i zimu u Europi!

JESEN 2010:

Jesen bo v vzhodni polovici Evrope nekoliko toplejša od povprečja, drugod pa bolj hladna kot je normalno. V večjem delu Evrope bo tudi več padavin kot je običajno, suho jesen si lahko obetajo le v Rusiji in na Iberskem polotoku.

ZIMA 2010/2011:

Zima bo v večjem delu  Evrope hladnejša od povprečja, najbolj mrzlo bo v Rusiji. V zahodni Evropi pa kaže na nekoliko bolj milo zimo kot je običajno. Padavin bo padlo najmanj v Sredozemlju in vzhodni Evropi, na Iberskem polotoku kaže na zelo suho zimo. Nekoliko več padavin pa bo v severnem delu srednje Evrope in v Skandinaviji.

[The_Night_Hawk]

 
Ovi opet pametuju...
Čuj,oni ZNAJU da će zima biti hladnija od prosjeka...
A i taj Bastardi,čovjek jeste školovan i sve, i ruši mit o globalnom otopljenju...
OK.
Ali smara malo(čitam ga redovno) da ga napadaju,blalala...
Kao svaki prosječan rap musician koji poziva na battle.
 
OFTOPIK,ali opasan...
Pošto našta draga planeta polako zaranja u onaj hladniji dio 30 godišnjeg ciklusa...
Znamo šta slijedi.
Zna i DŽO,pa nije teško prognozirati hladniju zimu OD PROŠLE.
Ili od prosjeka za zadnjih 20 godina,koji je znamo kakav.
 ;D ;D ;D
Uostalom,vidjećemo...
 

[slovenka]

Nesto novo od Bastardija!

To My European readers...

You may have noticed a marked decrease in my postings in the last month or two. This is because of new duties I have here that really mean I have very little time to put forth the kind of honest effort that ethically I feel bound to when making a forecast. I have never backed away from a challenge, but I find my position, as far as trying to get out there and keep you up-to-date, impossible to maintain. There is only one of me, only so many hours in a day, and while my first love is the kind of pattern dissection needed to give you hints on your weather, I am no longer capable of doing this in a consistent fashion, because of these other things, for Europe.

I have seen the emails wanting to know about the winter. Again, to put together a forecast and line things up the way I do, takes a long time, and what I now do takes away from that time. My gut feeling is the core of the cold this winter... in relation to normals, runs from the Alps to the Balkans. I don't think Great Britain is as cold as last year, more or less a normal winter. But this will be a rough winter in areas in central and eastern Europe, the interior part of the continent. That is a thumbnail sketch, a rough look. One more thing... precipitation will be a bit below normal for much of Europe this winter.

I actually feel a bit guilty about putting out something like this because it is not how I do things... I have a code I live by. On the other hand, I guess I did not realize how many of you follow me over there, and I am moved. I will try my best to put together a forecast that, right or wrong, I can feel I did my best with. Again, the amount of time that has to be devoted to these new work requirements is close to 10 hours a week, and that is time I spent researching things... and may I add enjoying myself while I did it. I can't say that I enjoy what I am doing in this other option, but as the great Christian minister Oswald Chambers said, it is those that can find glory in drudgery that are actually reaching for the highest ideal... Anyone can do something when it's all chocolate and roses, which is what the challenge of putting together a Euro forecast is to me, a labor of love.

Believe me, I am trying.

By the way, I see the AGW crew is yelling about the 2nd lowest ice total ever. I remind you, it was forecast here, and it got to exactly where I said. Unfortunately for that crowd, their days of crowing are numbered. A Lot of them predicted it to be lower than '07 because they either don't understand what is going on or they are loathe to admit it. The Earth is going to cool. THE PDO HAS BEEN WARM SINCE WE STARTED MEASURING THE ICE, AND NOW IT HAS REVERSED! The 2nd lowest total ever is only in the last 32 years, and in the wake of the Nino, which warms the planet, it could not even get back to where it was in '07. Now things are really going to take off the other way in the next two years. Then lets see what happens after 30 years of cold PDO, and then when the Atlantic kicks in. We won't have to wait. Sea ice next summer will be back to levels that we were at before 2005, and the following summer will be where they were in the late '90s! And I think they know darn well what is coming, because their precious climate models are showing the cooling now big-time in the Arctic region. Notice how there is no mention of that. It's got to sting when a human sees something before the model, especially if it shoots holes in their theory.

Look at this... The ice-melt season next year may not start till May if these models have any clue (which because of the powerful Nina they will, once the Nina has reached its maturity).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/glbT2mSea.g if

If you can't get this, just google coupled forecast system and go to the global temperature seasonal forecast. It's got to have the warming crowd seeing blue.

And let's see some brave journalists in 2013 come over here and question some of our politicians who have been saying the sea ice will be gone by then. It's about time someone held their feet to the fire, which is what we may all want to do in 20-30 years to keep warm.

Okay, off my soapbox, sorry about that, but the coming cooling is like shooting fish in a barrel. Keep an eye on this site and watch the bottom drop out over the coming six-nine months on the global temperatures.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

And by the way, if you can't see the oceans leading the air temperature with the bouncing up and down with the Nino and Nina, then you simply won't admit the obvious. And just wait till the cumulative years of a cold PDO start piling up... Again, the forecast is back to where we were at the start of the satellite era of OBJECTIVE measurement, as seen here, but 2030. But you can watch the sharp drop off of the Nino-induced peak in the next nine months.

Anyhow...

I will try to get the kind of forecast you expect from me, and I expect from myself, on line. Please understand.

Ciao for now... and thank you for the requests, as the reasons for them are flattering. I will try my best.

[ciklon]

Posle duzeg vremena javio se i gospodin Bastardi.
Ima tu svega i svacega, koliko sam uspeo da prevedem tekst, mada uvek nesto ostane nejasno.
Ima par lepih vesti za zimoljupce sto se tice zime koja dolazi, ali i po koja losa kao ona da padavina nece biti bas puno, mada kakav niz imamo trenutno tesko mi je da poverujem u to.
Zanimljivo je to sto spominje u vezi leda na Arktiku tj. njegovom rastu, pretrazujem net i na tu temu srecem dosta slicnih izjava.

"THE PDO HAS BEEN WARM SINCE WE STARTED MEASURING THE ICE, AND NOW IT HAS REVERSED!"
Drzim ga za ovu izjavu....

[slovenka]

Evo jos nesto...

A COUNTER TO SOMETHING I JUST SAW ON OUR CLIMATE CHANGE SITE ABOUT ARCTIC SEA ICE.

The unmistakable fact about the sea ice is it got to exactly where this forecaster said it would in March. We have a piece in our Climate Change center that of course is trying to say that this year was cherry picked, since it was based on information given by the same people who have said this is in a death spiral (2007) predicted it go lower this year and then have been on the train claiming this will disappear.

Well, the forecast from this forecaster said that it would go to where it would this year, and that over the next 2-3 years, a recovery is on the way so that we will be back to where we were in 2005 next year and even more after that (for the summer). The overall global sea ice is a bit below normal now; overall the sea ice melt in the Northern Hemisphere has been replaced by an increase in the Southern Hemisphere ice. The change of the PDO to cold means the recovery in the Northern Hemisphere is starting, though El Ninos like this one will cause a downtick. However, it did not get as low as it did in 2007, and now here is the new La Nina and the writing is on the wall as all modelling is pointing to abnormally cold conditions into the spring of next year, and it will go beyond as the La Nina (which wasn't even seen by their climate models when I started talking about all this back in February) will roll well into next year and beyond. The recovery back to normal so that these people are finally vanquished from the field of rational thought will take 20-30 years, as the AMO has to turn cold too.

However, when this is occurring, they actually will not be vanquished. You know why? Because the SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE ICE WILL DECREASE to compensate. It will "look" like the global temps are falling for the opposite reason it has looked like they are rising the past 30 years, when in reality there has been little detectable change in the overall energy budget. The fact is that a warm PDO and AMO distort northward the axis of warmth, where more warmth can occur because the air is drier and more likely to warm over land! AND most of the land is in the northern hemisphere! But reverse that and what happens? Is there any true change? Unlikely. How can we tell? The smoking gun is the stratosphere; if the troposphere was warming, the stratosphere would be cooling. That is not the case. In fact, one may say that the upcoming tropospheric cooling, which the models are screaming loudly about globally, could be linked not only with the La Nina, but the major warming in the stratosphere last winter. This is reversing, though with the Antarctic Oscillation having been positive much of their winter and now it appears the Arctic Oscillation will do the same.

But guess what, to the people, and that includes my own here at work, there is only one thing to do... see who is right. Let's see what that ice does next summer; let's see what the global temps do. I was not consulted on the article that appeared 17 September. If so, I would have reminded our people what YOU KNOW CAUSE YOU READ IT HERE. The ice and the spiking of the global temps in response to the nino were all forecast here, even as the cold winter last year was. The ice did exactly as was forecast by me, and by the way, some people on my side of the debate were saying there would be less, so I took issue with them too. But the death spiral is done... the ice will be coming back and may be back faster than even what I am saying. But thinking this is cherry picking is nonsense. If anything, the cherry tree will be even riper for picking in the coming years... and we will see who is right or wrong on that.

We have the freedom to comment here. Since I was not consulted on that piece, and since you folks knew what I was saying beforehand and now that the melt season is over, we saw that it did what I said. Let's see if the person that was right will continue to be right, and the people that said this was headed lower than what it was are wrong next year.

We will see where that ice is at the end of next summer. My forecast is that it will be at least higher than this year and probably comparable to 2005.

Ciao for now.

[ptprince]

Bastardi ga mnogo tupi... Samo ke*a o otopljenjima i zahlađenjima... Gde je bio da predvidi slovenačku katastrofu?

[slovenka]

Bastardi ga mnogo tupi... Samo ke*a o otopljenjima i zahlađenjima... Gde je bio da predvidi slovenačku katastrofu?

Hehee nije predvideo katastrofu u Sloveniji ali je svejedno prognozirao oborine iznad proseka u Europi za jesen 2010...

[danijel]

Drugari ima li nekih noviteta od Joe Bastardija u vezi predstojece zime,ako neko sazna novo neka postavi link ili napise tekst,pitam dal da bezim opet za Tirol kod sestre preko zime ili ce decembar i januar i kod nas biti intresantan Hvala unapred )))

[gabesz20]

Drugari ima li nekih noviteta od Joe Bastardija u vezi predstojece zime,ako neko sazna novo neka postavi link ili napise tekst,pitam dal da bezim opet za Tirol kod sestre preko zime ili ce decembar i januar i kod nas biti intresantan Hvala unapred )))

Bezi ti u Tirol sto je sigurno sigurno

[danijel]

Haha pa druze ali ipak da dam sansu makar decembru hehe,iako Svabe takodje javljaju jaku zimu tako da ne brinem hehe,ali Tirol mi ne gine ako ovde zakazemo

[ciklon]

Bastardi ga mnogo tupi... Samo ke*a o otopljenjima i zahlađenjima... Gde je bio da predvidi slovenačku katastrofu?

Slovenka je vec napisala ali nije lose da dodam i ja.
Bastardi je najavio(u maju-junu) hladniji pocetak jeseni i mogucnost velikih padavina u Evropi(za kraj leta i pocetak jeseni), kako god mislili u tome ima istine i ne mozemo da poreknemo.
Mozda on samo lupeta ali voleo bi da cujem i neku drugu stranu da izadje s konkretnim prognozama pa da uporedimo, konkurencija je uvek dobra...

On je jasno naglasio da je pogresio kod najave avgusta meseca i da je mesec bio nesto topliji u Evropi od njegovih ocekivanja, dok je recimo za jul dao odlicnu prognozu.
Ipak se sve to radi mesecima ranije, a svi znamo kako je tesko dati dobru i preciznu prognozu za nedelju dana unapred a o mesecima da ne pricam!

Moze se tu i tamo procitati na nekim ino sajtovima da ce predstojeca zima biti hladna za veci deo kontinenta ali to je samo u najavi.
Vec sam negde spomenuo RHMZ i njihovu sezonsku prognozu, videcemo koliko ce biti precizna kad je upitanju naredna zima, ja bih voleo da budu upravu.

EDIT: Zaboravih nesto da napisem o slovenackoj katastrofi.
Slovenija je toliko mala da je nema ni na mapi a predvideti katastrofu jednog dela tako male drzavice je prilicno tesko, narocito iz Amerike, kao da predvidjas broj dana sa maglom u juznobackom okrugu.