Tema: Joe Bastardi i drugovi-European Blog

[slovenka]

TUESDAY 11 PM

THE WINTER OUTLOOK FOR EUROPE

EUROPE

In 2003, the fierce heat wave centered in France was replaced by a chilly October, and when winter came, much of Europe was warmer than normal. However the area that was near normal to a bit below was close to where that heat wave was.. and then eastward through southern and southeastern Europe.

This years August heat wave, like 2003, coming off an el nino winter the year before, was over Russia and into central Europe,. October has been cold in much of this area and guess what, the winter will be most fierce from Euro-Russia into the Alps. Russian temps as much as 3C below normal for the winter are possible, 1-2 C below normal westward into the Alps. Most of northwest Europe will be near to a little below normal ( up to 1C below normal) while northern and central Scandinavia Scotland, and Ireland are near or a bit above normal.

Snowfall will be above normal across much of Europe with heaviest in the Alps into Russia, perhaps a bit below normal in northern areas.

To sum up, a severe winter looks to be on table from the Alps into Russia, but winter in Great Britain and Ireland will not be as severe as last year.

Globally. Opposite of last year, the globe will be cooling considerably and temps by Spring should be running near or below the normal. This trend will probably make 2011 the coolest year since the late 90s. Arctic sea ice will continue to recover from the 2007 lows, with the summer ice melt season next year probably returning ice to pre 2006 levels

[danijel]

Intresantno Slovenka ali sem zime od Alpa i Rusije za podrucje Balkana ni reci hehe,ali nadam se da ce se i kod nas osetiti sve hehe inace opet bezim za Tirol

[slovenka]

Intresantno Slovenka ali sem zime od Alpa i Rusije za podrucje Balkana ni reci hehe,ali nadam se da ce se i kod nas osetiti sve hehe inace opet bezim za Tirol

pa ne pominje Balkan kad kaze na podrucju od Rusije do Alpa ili od Alpa do Rusije tako je i Balkan naravno hehee... neznam kako si protumacio ti??

[gabesz20]

Intresantno Slovenka ali sem zime od Alpa i Rusije za podrucje Balkana ni reci hehe,ali nadam se da ce se i kod nas osetiti sve hehe inace opet bezim za Tirol

Reko ti ja sto je sigurno sigurno...bezi ti za Alpe da ne reskiras!:)
Inace pratim ovu tema koja je vidim dosta popularna, nisam siguran da vredi toliko paznje.

[danijel]

Pa ja cu sigurno bar 2 nedelje zbrisati preko zime za Tirol kod sestre,e sad malo uzitka i dok sam kuci nije lose,ali uzdam se ja u Vrsacke planine i dah Karpata koji nas uvek zagolica heehe

[ciklon]

Evo konkretne prognoze od Bastardija za citavu Evropu, praticemo i ocenicemo je!

SATURDAY NOON:

HERE WE GO, A MORE DETAILED OUTLOOK

I hope to have a detailed European video on the free site this upcoming week. We have a pro site, where people pay for my day to day commentary and videos, and I think some of the misunderstanding here is that many of you dont understand that what you see here on the free site is the tip of my iceberg..in other words, work I volunteered to do because I wanted to show folks in Europe that I could forecast for you.. and that was to attract business interests in Europe as well as some of the altruistic motives. However a marked increase in my work demands in other areas has curtailed that idea, and so I have not been able to weigh in as much, and it pains me. Still the moving emails to me not only got me to do this, but, and if you are going to read my column you'll have to put up with my ideas ( if you don't like what I say, dont read it) really illuminated Luke 7:9 to me. Being that I am into things like, I felt to say thank you, I should make sure I get this out to you!

So here is what I have done. I have gone into much more detail in regions or countries. Please take no offense is your country is not mentioned specifically, you may just fall into the weather region I have you in. I have my map of Europe in front of me ( notice I even included Iceland!) and so I have really upped the ante here so to speak.

The analog package is much warmer than I have over the north. In fact, the analogs of La Ninas coming off el ninos the previous year is for major warmth north of 40 north, which is much of europe, centered over Scandinavia where winter temps approach as much as 7 above normal ( f)! Some of you, especially my readers in the United Kingdom are really chafing at my less than enthusiastic winter forecast there. Sorry, I just dont believe its going to be that cold.. a bit above normal in the north, near normal in the south, and while I am sure there will be times winter comes calling, there is more danger of it being warm than cold this winter. Its not last year.

That being said, from Italy and the Alps through the Balkans and Turkey, through the Ukraine and into the south of Euro Russia, this looks to be a cold winter and one with more than normal snowfall. So here it is Temps are in F

Iceland temps 1.5 above normal precip near normal snowfall near normal/

United Kingdom.. London Temps -.2f below normal precip 90% of normal snow normal Glasgow temp plus .5 precip below normal snowfall below normal/

Ireland Dublin Temp plus .2F precip 90% of normal snow below/

France Paris temp -.2F precip 90% of normal snow near or a little above normal/

Spain...Madrid temp -.6F precip normal snow near or a little above normal/

Portugal Lisbon temp -.8F temp precip near normal snow near or a little above normal/

Switzerland. Geneva temp -1 f precip normal snowfall above normal/

Italy. North temp -1 precip near normal snowfall a bit above Italy south temp -1 precip above normal snow a bit above/

Austria Vienna temp -1.5 precip a bit above normal snowfall above normal/

Germany north temps .2 to .4 above normal precip below .. snowfall below normal Germany south temps .2 to .4 BELOW normal precip normal snowfall a bit above Benelux Same as northern Germany/

Scandinavia. 1 above normal south, 2-4 above normal north, precip below normal, snowfall much of Scandinavia below normal/

Poland temps 1 above normal north, 2 below normal south. precip below normal north, above south. snowfall near or below normal north, above normal south/

Czech republic temps 1-2 below normal precip slightly above snowfall above/

Balkans bounded by Slovakia and Hungary on north, Albania to Bulgaria on south, and eastward into the Ukraine temps 2-4 F below normal precip above normal snowfall above normal/

Greece temps 1-3 below normal north, 1 below normal south, precip above normal, snowfall above normal/

Turkey temps 1-3 below normal precip above, snowfall above/

Belarus Temps 1-2 below normal precip below snowfall near normal/

Lithuania.. normal across the board./

Latvia, Estonia temps around 1 above normal, precip below normal snowfall below normal/

Eurorussia. North : same as Scandinavia Central Same as Belarus South Same as Ukraine/

Now, if you agree or disagree, lets simply see how things turn out. But that is my idea in more detail now.

Again, you are wonderful. I cant tell you how moved I was by the email, and you know something I brought up a spiritual aspect of it, but it gives me faith also that in spite of what looks to be a world spinning out of control, the basic goodness of people means there is hope for our children.

Sometimes in the weather, if you look hard enough, you can see that there is more at play than just the weather.

ciao for now

[slovenka]

Ovu prognozu je objavio zbog mene, ja sam ga preko emaila zamolila hehee ;D ali je brzo to objavio ne mogu verovati, svaka cast

[Vozd]

Mislim da mu ipak bolje ide bodybuilding videcemo

[slovenka]

Mislim da mu ipak bolje ide bodybuilding videcemo

Naravno tek krajem marta ali je prosle zime za neke delove Europe dobro pogodio...

[Danijel-Daca]

Koliko sam ja shvatio,trebalo bi da bude hladnije u odnosu na proslu godinu sa vise snega!!!!! 

[slovenka]

Intresantno Slovenka ali sem zime od Alpa i Rusije za podrucje Balkana ni reci hehe,ali nadam se da ce se i kod nas osetiti sve hehe inace opet bezim za Tirol

eto Danijel sada ima rec o Balkanu hehee....

That being said, from Italy and the Alps through the Balkans and Turkey, through the Ukraine and into the south of Euro Russia, this looks to be a cold winter and one with more than normal snowfall. So here it is Temps are in F

[danijel]

Nista Slovenka da mu verujemo na rec pa cu ostati ove zime kod kuce,ali ako imalo zataji eto mene i u Tirol malkice

[slovenka]

Nista Slovenka da mu verujemo na rec pa cu ostati ove zime kod kuce,ali ako imalo zataji eto mene i u Tirol malkice

Pa naravno, vidjet cemo kako ce biti nije ovo bas ono sigurno ali po prosloj zimi u nekim delovima Europe je dobro pogodio Joe pa zato sam sigurna da ce i ove godine nekako tako biti...

[danijel]

Hej zima ce bit dobra,ne brinem ja siguran sam da necemo da imamo 20 u plusu u sred januara a za mraz i sneg ne brinem,vraca se polako trend jakih zima polako ali sigurno ;D

[slovenka]

Evo video od Bastardija...

http://www.accuweather.com/video/646598930001/the-euro-winter-lets-not-get-too-carried-away.asp?channel=vbbastaj

[slovenka]

Europe Winter Forecast for 2010-2011

Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi is calling for the core of winter in Europe this year to target the southern portion of the continent, while areas from the United Kingdom into Scandinavia that were hit hard last year catch a break.

The major player in this winter's forecast is the phenomenon called La Niña, when sea surface temperatures across the equatorial central and eastern Pacific are below normal. Last winter was characterized by an El Niño, which is the opposite of La Niña with warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures.

Bastardi highlights that in past years in which there was a transition from an El Niño to a La Niña, such as this year, there tended to be unusual warmth north of latitude 40° north, which includes most of Europe.

This winter, Bastardi is generally going with this idea, though he is expecting the above-normal warmth to be a bit farther north. On average, above-normal temperatures are forecast for areas from the northern U.K. into Scandinavia. Precipitation is generally expected to be below normal in these areas.

While winter enthusiasts across northern Europe may be disappointed with this forecast, many people will probably welcome a break after last year's harsh winter.



Farther south, Bastardi expects near-normal temperatures from southern England into the northern Europe mainland and colder-than-normal conditions from Italy and the Alps into the Balkans, Ukraine and southern Russia.

It is this zone from Italy and the Alps into southern Russia where the core of the nastiest part of winter will reside. Along with colder-than-normal temperatures, above-normal snowfall is anticipated in this region.

Southern Poland, the Czech Republic, Greece, Turkey, southern Russia, Italy and much of Switzerland are included in this cold, snowy zone.

While not as extreme farther west, people in cities such as Paris, Madrid and Lisbon can expect this winter to be colder than last year's. Slightly below-normal temperatures and near or slightly above-average snowfall are predicted.

Across northern Europe, snowfall and temperatures are expected to average closer to normal in London, while areas toward Glasgow and Dublin experience slightly above-average temperatures and snowfall just a little below normal.

Even warmer and less snowy conditions compared to normal can be expected farther east across northern Europe, including northern Russia, Latvia, Estonia and much of Scandinavia.

by Heather Buchman, Meteorologist

[danijel]

Super znaci par nedelja kod sestre u Sent Galenu u Svajcarskoj bice i snega i zime,a i kod nas kako kaze Joe videcemo....

[ptprince]

Baš me zanima kako će da se ostvari ovako izražena anomalija.
Mogu da prihvatim nešto hladniju zimu od proseka kod nas, a nešto topliju od proseka na severu. Međutim, idući u ekstreme, malo se preteruje. Ili dotični daje sebi publicitet (deluje kao takav lik), ili ne zna previše o klimi Evrope. Ja ne znam trikove klime Amerike, niti se pačam u tako nešto.

A zime će biti, naravno. Još se nije desilo (iako neki ne tvrde tako) da je zima izostala. I snega će biti u Sent Galenu, naravno. Za takvu izjavu nije neophodna neka mudrost.

[danijel]

Pa da ce biti snega u Sent Galenu znam i sam i bez njega haha,dosad nijedne zime nije omanula kad sam bio kao ni u Tirolu hehe,nego znas ono pojeo bi se da sam tamo i ovde pada a tamo labuda hehe a da ce biti nesto toplija na severu najavaili su i Norveski meterolozi,videcemo sta bude bice samo je priroda ta koja zna koji ce ples da otplese

[slovenka]

HELLO, EUROPE... NO CHANGE IN WINTER IDEAS ON THE THREAT OF BRUTAL COLD ALPS INTO SOUTHERN RUSSIA.

By the way, you can follow me on Twitter (I am @BigJoeBastardi). I occasionally tweet there on Europe when I don't have time for monster posts. In fact, I tweeted today.

I see nothing to back away on the idea that the core of the worst of the winter is in southern Europe into southern Russia this year. Most of the "continent" is cold and it's Ireland, northern and central Great Britain and Scandinavia that has the shot at warmer than normal. It will be a tussle in Brussels, but once south to Vienna and Berne, it's the cold that will turn people into non-believers (if they have not had enough already) that may be warm, warm, warm is not the way to go. I also think the winter is cold from Italy to Turkey. The threat of cold is no bull in Istanbul.

Having my way with words here.

In fact, I am so impressed that I think my relatives all the way to Bari, Italy, are going to see it snow this year.

For my amigos in Madrid... look out, a cold Spanish winter is on the way. In Greece and Cyprus, colder than normal. In fact, from about the 50th latitude south, this looks nasty, but centered between 40 and 45.

If you like winter cold... you'll love what's coming.

Ciao for now.