Tema: Jun 2010.

[gabesz20]

Danas bas dosta ozbiljna situacija na seveeru zemlje! Zadnjih par GFS izlaza nije bio tako dobar, ali ovaj zadnji je bas ozbiljan, i crta dosta jake parametre! Znaci treba ocekivai i jake grmljavine na severu zemlje!

[Milosh]

Crtaju se još od prekjuče ozbiljnije nestabilnosti. Čak sam i rekao tada da bismo vrlo lako mogli očekivati oluju godine danas ili sutra. Ima uslova i za superćelije, tako da moramo biti u pripravnosti.
Čekamo još ESTOFEX, u zadnjih nekoliko dana su jako dobro pogađali, mislim da će ovoga puta da nas stave u 2.

[Kimi]

Još nema ESTOFEX-a  Šta to rade više  :o 

[Sic]

Dajte link za estrofex!

[dikile]

http://www.estofex.org/

[Milosh]

Još nema ESTOFEX-a  Šta to rade više  :o 

Vjerovatno su još uvijek u nedoumicama, pa čekaju 06Z za svaki slučaj.

[lazar]

  Mozda nas pripremaju za 3 stepen  Salim se taj 3. stepen je toliko redak mislim da u arhivi estofexa nikad nismo bili pod tim stepenom upozorenja, mada ja sam zadovoljan i sa jedinicom.....  ;D

[laky]

Nebi bilo lose da osetimo i level 3.  Posto ga nije bilo kod nas JOS!
Stvarno su ga danas razduzili. Proce ceo dan. 

[dikile]

Ma pustite Estofex, ovo sto se crta za naredni period može samo da zabrine. Mnogo kiše..
Na primer meni Ec za ponedeljak daje 40mm

[Kimi]

Kakvu kišetinu crta GFS 06Z od subote jaoo,jaoo    Prvo iz Đenovskog,a zatim iz Crnomorskog ciklona.

[dusan]

 :o

[Milosh]

Po RHMZ-u danas nigdje neće biti grmljavine... I dalje se pitam koje modele oni gledaju... 
Možda neće biti baš ozbiljnijih nevremena, kao što mi očekujemo, ali će pljuskova sa grmljavinom lokalno biti sigurno (pa već ih je i bilo u Banatu )
A ESTOFEX definitivno nije izdao prognozu danas.

Što se tiče narednih dana, sigurno je da će biti čestih padavina, a ono zahlađenje bi moglo biti ublaženo.

[dikile]

Da li ste primetili da je ovaj jun mnogo slican proslom.
Imali smo pocetak sa kisom, u isti dan stabilizacija (6.) kao i prosle godine, vrucine do 35C, a od 20. nestabilno sa kisom. I sada se crta vrlo slicno vreme, anticiklon iznad Skandinavije i V.B. a kod nas plitki ciklon sa verovatno sporokretajucim oblacima...

[ocelot]

We mourn the passing of our colleague and friend Dr. Nikolai Dotzek, Director of the European Severe Storms Laboratory. He was a great scientist and has done an incredible job raising interest for the science of severe storms in Europe. Our thoughts are with his family.

The ESTOFEX Team

možda je ovo razlog što ESTOFEX danas nije ništa okačio

[beket]

Milos je nas dr Estofex!

[gabesz20]

Eto obistinili su se jaki parametri, vidim da u Vojvodini ne bas ali u Srbiji po sad pogledanim radarskim snimcima bilo je supercelija!

[gabesz20]

Sutra opet ozbiljan dan...opet dan vrlo lako sa supercelijama, cim budem imo vremena proanalirizacu parametre, al ovako brzo pogledani bas to izgleda ozbiljno!!

[Kimi]

  Da,moglo bi biti vrlo zanimljivo kolega 

Ali pre toga,evo ESTOFEX-a za danas:

Central Italy to the Balkans

Ahead of the cut-off low, a strong south-westerly jet spreads across the western Mediterranean into central Italy and further into the northern Balkans. Winds will reach about 20 m/s at the 700 hPa level during the day. In the range of this jet, models agree about a frontal wave spreading eastwards, and warm subtropical air advects into southern Italy and the southern Balkans. The warm air advection regime is characterized by a rather cool boundary layer, but the low-level moisture increases to the north-east as ample moisture can be found to the south of a front over the northern Balkans.

Initiation seems to be most likely over the north-western Balkans. Outflow boundaries of Wednesday's thunderstorms and rich low-level moisture are expected, while some daytime heating will lead to upslope flow over the mountains. The cap will increase over the southern portions due to the warm air advection, limiting the chance of initiation, while upward vertical motion at the cyclonic flank of the jet will likely lead to steepening lapse rates further north, where about 1000 J/kg CAPE will be quite possible.

Main convective mode may be pulse storms initially, but increasing vertical wind shear and favorably veering profiles in the lowest 3 km will assist for mesocyclogenesis during the afternoon and evening hours. Large hail will be the main threat with every supercell that forms. Given the rather widespread convection, a high-end level 1 was issued. Tornadoes and severe wind gusts are not ruled out, but rather weak vertical wind shear in the lowest kilometre will limit the potential. Additionally, locally excessive rain and flash flooding is not ruled out. Storms may cluster into an MCS over the northern Balkans at the nose of the low-level jet given the QG forcing in the range of the approaching trough axis. Severe wind gusts and locally large hail are not ruled out, but the severe potential will gradually decrease during the night hours as the instability decreases.

Further west, low-level moisture is significantly weaker across the Mediterranean. Given the rather cool sea surface, only weak and strongly capped instability is expected, what limits the potential of thunderstorms. However, diurnal heating and associated sea-breeze convergence over central Italy may result in some storms that will have a high potential to organize given the strong vertical wind shear of about 20 m/s in the lowest 3 km. Large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast. Storms will likely weaken when they spread across the Adriatic Sea, so that severe potential will likely decrease.

[gencic]

možda je ovo razlog što ESTOFEX danas nije ništa okačio

Naravno da nije, jer to stoji vec desetak dana...Za juce ili nisu smatrali da imaju sta da kazu(malo verovatno) ili vise verovatno, nisu stigli,mogli i ostalo

[gabesz20]

Evo de bi supercelija mogla uci u nasu zemlju, uz to vidi se i na jugoistoku cirkus



Dalje da ne idemo jos... imamo par izlaza pa bi nesto konkretno izjavio posle njih...