Danas bi moglo biti jacec razvoja u severnoj polovini Srbije.
A level 1 was issued for Hungary, S-Slovakia, extreme W-Ukraine, Romania, N-Serbia, parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia mainly for large hail, strong to isolated severe wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall amounts.
... Italy, the Balkan States, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania ...
An active day is in store for widespread showers and thunderstorms.
21 Z (4th April) surface observations reflect robust LL moisture with dewpoints in the lower to mid tens over Italy and the coastal areas of the Adriatic Sea. Also, constant moisture recovery was seen over parts of Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina with Tds at or above 10°C. Further east, over Bulgaria and Romania, a northward progression of the 10 °C isodrosotherm was noted, too. Another region with potentially enhanced thunderstorm activity may arise along a wavy moisture convergence zone, which becomes established roughly from SE Germany to Slovakia to W-Ukraine. Some moisture pooling may locally increase the depth of the moist BL.
Well structured EML plume (warming lower troposphere beneath cold mid-levels) expands northeastwards with strongest lapse rates over S-Italy into Romania...decreasing slightly to the west. Strength of EML was sampled well by yesterday's soundings (e.g. S-Italy), so confidence is high that an extensive area will see an overlap of good BL moisture and steep lapse rates atop. 500 - 1000 J/kg MLCAPE are forecast, although on the mesoscale, even higher values could verify given high dewpoint gradients within the highlighted area.
Shear remains weak over most places. 1-8 km shear however will be enhanced over Bulgaria into Serbia with up to 20 m/s possible (although model uncertainties remain). Another spot with 20-25 m/s 0-6 km bulk shear is present over N-Tunisia to S-Italy, where strong polar front and subtropical jet phase up.
The 50-% thunderstorm areas were introduced as a consequence of supportive complex topography, augmented BL moisture and the aforementioned convergence zone. The extensive level 1 area was issued mainly due to a pretty cold troposphere (also lowered WBZ), steep mid-level lapse rates, a well mixed and dry subcloud layer (LCLs in excess of 1km) and locally strong CAPE signals (> 1kJ/kg MLCAPE). We expect a few large hail events with stronges storms. Strong to isolated severe wind gusts are possible, too, also fostered by supportive pattern for strong outflows. Slow storm motion may favor locally heavy rainfall amounts. The level 1 outruns the 50-% thunderstorm area over E-Romania due to limited storm coverage. The environment however remains favorable for an isolated large hail event (also keeping slightly stronger anvil-layer flow in mind).
Malo me je zbunila prognoza ESTOFEX-a, nisam ocekivao da ce dati jak razvoj s obzirom na uslove. Jedino sto bi mogao dodati je da ocekujem razvoj tek uvece jer tada konvegencija jaca...
