Nesto u vezi smicanja. Smicanje je promena brzine i pravca vetra u atmosferi i bitan je uslov za razvoj jakih oblaka ali smicanje ne pokrece razvoj! Da bi smicanje imalo uticaj potrebno je nestabilno vreme koje ce pokrenuti razvoj oblaka a to su ulazne struje, CAPE (naravno i ostali uslovi) ili hladan front. Ako je nestabilnost slaba a smicanje jako oblaci ce biti jednostavno oduvani dok sto je cesci slucaj da je nestabilnost jaka a smicanje slabo oblaci ce se formirati ali ce im struktura biti slaba pa ce kratko trajati i ne donose jace oluje.
Da sada predjem na prognozu, smicanje od 25m/s na krati koju je kimi postavio, a koje je sada dosta slabije u novom izlazu, je prejako za tu situaciju jer nestabilnost nije jaka a nema ni hladnog fronta.
Sutra se ocekuje slab hladan front pa su moguci kratkotrajni pljuskovi ponegde sa grmljavinom, vece sanse su u severnoj polovini Srbije i na istoku. Ne ocekuje se puno padavina jer je ciklon dosta slab.
At the frontal boundary, the boundary layer moisture has increased to about 6 g/kg in the lowest km. Diurnal heating will likely result in weak CAPE that will be nearly uncapped. Showers are forecast. Some of these showers may also be deep enough to produce lightning. The best potential is forecast over eastern Spain and the northern Balkans with the bst synoptic forcing due to a westerly mid-level jet streak, but isolated lightning may also be possible over the southern Alpine region and over eastern Poland. Most of these storms will be rather short-lived given the weak instability and vertical wind shear. However, given about 10 m/s 0-3 km bulk shear that may be locally enhanced by southerly low-level winds, some well-organized multicells or supercells are not ruled out. Large hail seems to be the primary threat.
Svaka litra je bitna narocito na severu...
