Tema: Maj 2012.

[laky]

ESTOFEX za svaki slucaj rasirio podrucje za grad i jake udare vetra ali pise gde su najvece sanse...



A level 1 was issued for east central Europe mainly for large hail.

Eastern Europe

Well developed EMLs are present over eastern Europe and are indicated by latest soundings as far north-east as northern Poland and Denmark. The surface cold front at 6 UTC was located from eastern Germany to eastern Austria and the Adriatic Sea. To the north-east of this frontal boundary, rather rich low-level moisture is observed over the Balkans and southern Poland. A tongue of rich low-level moisture is also present below the warm mid-level air from Poland into northern Germany and the Netherlands. Showers and thunderstorms have developed from the Netherlands to western Poland and over southern-eastern Germany as well as along the cold front from western Hungary to eastern Czech Republic.

Today, moisture is rather limited over most places, but is expected to be sufficient to allow for CAPE especially across the central Balkans and western Romania. To the north-east, the surface frontal boundary is expected to be the focus for instability release. Low-level moisture may increase to the west of this frontal boundary from western Hungary to the Czech Republic and north-eastern Germany. CAPE will be weak to moderate (500-1500 J/kg) from western Poland into the Balkans and to the Black Sea region in the afternoon hours.

Initiation is forecast over the mountainous regions of south-eastern Europe (especially Romania and the Balkans) due to upslope flow and low-level moisture pooling. Additional storms will re-organize along the convergence zone ahead of the frontal boundary from the northern Balkans to Poland. While the mid-level flow has decreases and is rather weak over most places (up to about 10 m/s bulk shear in the lowest 3 km), storms will mostly be rather unorganized. Best potential of isolated supercells is expected over the northern Balkan region where around 100 J/kg 0-3 km SRH is likely ahead of the trough axis and slightly stronger winds at 700 hPa.

Most storms are forecast to organize in clusters with isolated pulse storms capable of producing large hail. Excessive precipitation will be also possible at local places. Severe wind gusts due to intense downdrafts may be likely in the eastern parts where low-level lapse rates and evaporative cooling will be rather large. A rather broad marginal level 1 is issued due to these threats. Storm clusters will likely weaken during the night but may survive along the frontal boundary until the morning.

Szupercella takodje izdala level 1 za Madjarsku...

[Ljubiša]

I danas dobar deo Srbije pod "jedinicom" po ESTOFEX-u.

[Milosh]

Danas kratkotrajni predah od konvektivnih dešavanja, ali već sutra se vraćaju nestabilnosti. Ponovo će postojati šanse za lokalno jača nevremena. Ovoga puta će CAPE biti nešto niži nego prethodni put kad smo imali jače nestabilnosti (četvrtak), ali će svi ostali parametri biti jači, uključujući smicanje i vrlo izraženo jugozapadno strujanje. I solidne padavine se crtaju. Trebalo bi da to budu nevremena u okviru estofex-ove "jedinice".
U utorak prolazno zahlađenje i stabilizacija, od srijede toplije...

[Kimi]

Mene više raduje  početak severoistočnog strujanja tamo od srede-četvrtka.

Za ovo što se crta u jugozapadnoj struji sutra me nije ni briga (moj potpis sve govori),ali svakako da područja koja tradicionalno imaju sreće sa tim strujanjem (Podrinje,Beograd,Vojvodina) mogu da očekuju lepe nestabilnosti.

[Kimi]

12Z GFS znatno smanjio konvektivne padavine za sutra,crta ih samo na zapadu i jugozapadu zemlje. 

[Milosh]

12Z GFS znatno smanjio konvektivne padavine za sutra,crta ih samo na zapadu i jugozapadu zemlje. 

Za par sati je poranio nailazak fronta i sve se promijeni. Nije to još ništa definitivno.

[laky]

I kod prethodnog fronta GFS je pomerao par sati napred, nazad pa je ipak bilo jaceg razvoja u Slavoniji i Vojvodini, samo sto je vazduh bio dosta suv pa nije bilo obilnijih padavina...
Nestabilnost nije nesto jaka ali moze ponegde biti jaceg razvoja. Jedino sto moze biti oblacnosti sutra pa ako ne bude sunca tj. toplo nece biti ni razvoja ali videcemo.

Mene više raduje  početak severoistočnog strujanja tamo od srede-četvrtka.

Jedino u cetvrtak moze biti pljuskova od severoistocnog strujanja, za vikend nov ciklon za severozapada Evrope, bar je tako po GFS-u za sada. Po EC-u ni nema padavina...

[Kimi]

GFS ponovo pojačao padavine za danas popodne.

ESTOFEX lepo objasnio situaciju:

A level 1 was issued for the central Adriatic, Bosnia, Montenegro, Serbia and W-ern Romania mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.


...Hungary, Balkan States...

Further Southwest, the frontal zone becomes increasingly diffuse while it is overrun by the Italien short-wave trough. The complex topography and the lack of a distinct air mass boundary make it hard to predict where and when further shallow lows will form, either dynamically due to lee effects in the wake of the Alps and the Apennin mountains, or thermally due to strong insolation. The left exit of a moderate jet streak which rounds the tip of the short-wave trough may be an additional player.
Current thinking is that the day will start with a cluster of rain and embedded convection affecting the Northern Adriatic Sea, coastal Croatia and maybe Bosnia in the morning hours. The same cluster may spread extensive convective debris and thick clouds over most of Hungary. Limited insolation and a possible shallow surge of cooler air from the Northwest make convective initiation and the severe weather threat somewhat conditional there. Higher probabilities for storm formation can be seen over Croatia, Bosnia and Serbia, where also the chances for the formation of a mesoscale (thermal) low and accompanying moisture piling at low levels seem to be best. CAPE will be around 500 J/kg, while the best deep-layer shear of 15-20 m/s is displaced to the South. A level 1 centered over Bosnia and Serbia covers the best overlap of vertical wind shear (which is mainly unidirectional) and instability. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the main threat with these storms. Storm coverage is expected to be lower further South over Montenegro and Southern Serbia, but any storm may become multicellular or even supercellular there due to the stronger vertical wind shear. Convection will continue into the evening and spread northeastward into Transsylvania then, but decreasing boundary layer quality due to incipient nighttime cooling and probable antecedent air mass convection in the afternoon will gradually limit the severe weather threat. Besides, also the dynamic lifting support of the decelerating short-wave trough should decrease notably by then.

[Milosh]

Modeli su danas vrlo složni oko ozbiljnije promjene vremena već za vikend. U subotu bi bilo predfrontalnih nestabilnosti, a u nedjelju veliki pad temperature. Nakon toga bi se zadržala ciklonska aktivnost uz obilnije padavine, ali o detaljima kasnije.
Do tada, nekoliko dana sunčanog i stabilnog vremena.

[Kimi]

Zaista se crta vrlo ozbiljna promena vremena...mogao bi sneg na planinama k'o od šale.

Što se tiče nestabilnosti u severoistočnoj struji,one će se ipak većim delom zadržati istočnije u Rumuniji i Bugarskoj ,ali bi ipak ponegde (posebno na istoku,jugoistoku i jugu zemlje)u četvrtak i petak bilo uslova za popodnevne pljuskove sa grmljavinom.

Nadam se da će i ovde zalutati neki oblačak,toliko sam  dugo čekao na ovakvo strujanje .

[laky]

Jak ali suv front, anticiklon sprecava nestabilnost i po GFS-u i EC-u tek ponegde moze biti pljuskova. Naravno daleko je ali anticiklon ne popusta, za sada nista zanimljivo. Sta ce biti posle fronta tek cemo da vidimo...

[Aleksa]

Nece valjda kisa u nedelju...joooj...i prosle godine je padala ceo dan,taj dan je seoska slava.Sve je upropastila prosle,nece valjda i ove godine:(

[laky]

To cemo znati za par dana, jos je rano da bi rekali da li ce biti kise ili ne. U svakom slucaju promena vremena je skoro sigurna, pad temperatura uz pojacan vetar tako da nece biti lepo vreme u nedelju...

[ciklon]

Od nedelje nas ocekuje jako zahladjenje koje ce verovatno biti praceno padavinam ali je rano jos predvidjati kolika ce kolicina gde pasti.
Pre toga ostaju jos dva topla dana u kojima cemo imati letnje temperature i lepo suncano vreme a onda front i pogorsanje od nedelje.

[Milosh]

U nedjelju i ponedjeljak se definitivno iz kratkih rukava vraćamo u jakne, makar na dva dana. Vrlo ozbiljno zahlađenje, ali će vjerovatno biti krakotrajno, jer se već sredinom sledeće sedmice vraćaju proljećne temperature.

[file]

Pošto pričate o zahlađenju, yanima me da li će Tmin biti ispod nule? Strah me za voće.

[Darko_9]

Ne mogu da verujem da će sutra biti 30 stepeni a prekosutra samo 15 stepeni , mada je moguće ako topao vazduh gura hladan on se dodatno hladi pa je moguć brutalan pad temperature za 15 stepeni , već vidjeno ranijih godina! U maju je to sasvim normalno , nije ovo avgust da ceo mesec bude od 30 do 35 stepeni!

A što se tiče mrazeva mislim da ih neće biti!

[laky]

File tlo se zagrejalo mraza nece sigurno biti, ne brini.

mada je moguće ako topao vazduh gura hladan on se dodatno hladi pa je moguć brutalan pad temperature za 15 stepeni , već vidjeno ranijih godina!

Pomesao si nesto, kako topao vazduh moze da hladi?
Mislim da se ti hteo da kazes da ce biti jos veca razlika u temperatura ako sutra bude jos malo toplije.

[gencic]

Nema tu sta, dolazi nam drasticno hladnija vazdusna masa, koja ce narocito u ponedeljak u kombinaciji sa potpuno oblacnim nebom dati razliku u temperaturi u odnosu na subotu i do 20 C.

[laky]

Steta sto je vazduh suv, nema jugozapadnog stujanja pa nece biti razvoja pri prolasku fronta. Padavina ce vise biti iz slojaste oblacnosti neko konvektivne.
Jedino sutra kasno posle podne na severozapadu i severu Vojvodine moze biti predfrontalne nestabilnosti ali sanse nisu velike.
 
GFS povecao padavine u Vojvodini, stvarno nedodstaje kisa i da ocisti vazduh i jer je zemlja dosta suva...