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Autor Tema: Jun 2012.  (Pročitano 34286 puta)

Van mreže laky

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« Odgovor #40 poslato: 09. Jun 2012. u 12:42 »
 ^^
Ja zato i ocekujem update u toku dana...

Ako i bude nekog razvoja nadam se da ce biti dan...



Ova situacija me podseca na nesto ovako...


Van mreže Stefan Valjevo

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« Odgovor #41 poslato: 10. Jun 2012. u 02:05 »
Kakva strašna bomba se crta u Bosni za utorak. :-[ Da se ostvari i pola od ovoga, moj kraj bi imao jake oluje. Isto važi i za ostatak Srbije. Sve će se bolje znati u ponedeljak.
« Poslednja izmena: 10. Jun 2012. u 02:39 Stefan Valjevo »

Van mreže Kimi

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« Odgovor #42 poslato: 10. Jun 2012. u 07:50 »
ESTOFEX za danas:

Kao i juče navode da je teško dati tačnu prognozu u ovakvim situacijama i da će možda zatrebati update popodne.



Citat
... Serbia, E Croatia through Hungary, W Romania, Slovakia into Poland, Ukraine and S Russia ...

Relatively good agreement between the NWP exists regarding these factors that will dominate the weather situation

A/ Surface low enhancing S-ly low level flow over Serbia, Hungary, Romania into Slovakia, Poland and Ukraine

B/ Plume of EML covering the southern part of this region

C/ Moderate to strong instability over the region, especially for Serbia, E Hungary, NW Romania and SW Ukraine, where MLCAPE values might very well exceed 2000 J/kg

D/ Warm front lifting across Slovakia, Poland and Ukraine during the day

E/ Moderate to strong DLS thanks to the SW-ly flow aloft, with the best vertical wind profiles south of the warm front with strongly enhanced SREH and DLS possibly over 25 m/s

Several uncertainities remain in the scenario and those are:

1/ Persistence of the morning MCS over Ukraine and its influence on the development there

2/ Remnants of the convection after very active previous day over Hungary might limit insolation somehow

3/ Contribution of the old outflow boundaries

4/ The northernmost extent of the warm sector

Current thinking is that storms will rapidly develop during the day, especially near the lifting warm front, where one or more MCS development over Slovakia, progressing into Poland and further into Ukraine is well possible relatively early in the day. We expect that northern part of the region will likely have the excessive precipitation as a major threat with humid low levels and very likely clustering of cells. However, strong DLS with bulk values of 20-25 m/s along with enhanced SREH locally over 300 J/kg might also turn any more isolated complex into a supercell with threats of large hail, severe wind gusts. Towards the evening, strengthening LLS with favorably veered flow above might in case of isolated supercells along the warm front easily lead to a few tornadoes in this location.

Towards the south, at first a more isolated development is expected, likely tied to the approaching short wave in the western extent of Lvl 1 and to the topographic features to the east. Also, capping will likely be stronger than to the north, which might help keeping DMC rather isolated and some areas might not experience DMC till late afternoon. In moderate to strong instability and DLS in the range of 15-25 m/s with enhanced SREH in the backing flow thanks to the deepening sfc low, strong well organised DMC is expected. Supercells will be likely with cell interaction and clustering later on probably resulting in a one or more MCS, which might included bow-echo structures. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast for the region. With wind shear approaching 20 m/s in 0-3 km layer, steep lapse rates and drier low to mid levels of troposphere, isolated wind gusts over 32 m/s are not ruled out, especially later in the period. It is possible that e.g. Eastern Hungary will not see storms till late evening, but persisting strong instability and increasing DLS should maintain the risk.

A large Level 1 is introduced for the region, covering uncertainities mentioned above. A level 2 is outlined for the area, where the best agreement exists and which is expected to experience the highest probability of extremely severe weather. As the scenario becomes better definied in the noon hours, an update to the forecast might become necessary.

NEVREME NIKADA NE DOLAZI SA JUGOZAPADA !(ovde ??? )

*Znaš onaj osećaj kada u jugozapadnom strujanju oblačnosti vidiš da uveče ili noću seva sa jugozapada ?? NE.......*

Van mreže gabesz20

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« Odgovor #43 poslato: 10. Jun 2012. u 08:36 »
Danas gotovo sigurno na udaru Banat (Vrsac,Zrenjanin, glavni grad i okolina). No videdecemo ali najvise modela daje taj scenario.

Van mreže laky

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« Odgovor #44 poslato: 10. Jun 2012. u 09:45 »
Szupercella i za danas izdala level 2 upozorenje za jug i jugoistok Madjarske, sto bi znacilo da bi i u Vojvodini trebalo biti razvoja.
http://www.szupercella.hu/eleinte_egy_egy_izolalt_szupercella_ejszaka_cmkr

Ne znam sta da ocekujem ali ipak nadam se da ce biti razvoja posle podne.

Za Beograd i Banat ste vec rekali uvece budite spremni...

Van mreže Milosh

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« Odgovor #45 poslato: 10. Jun 2012. u 09:45 »
Modeli (naročito GFS) su juče jako dobro namirisali još par dana unaprijed da će Mađarska biti u centru pažnje. Isto su danas nanjušili za sjevernu polovinu Srbije (pogotovo Banat) i čvrsto se drže toga. Ja sam gotovo ubijeđen da će danas Srbijom proći makar jedna jaka superćelija, ali se nadam da neće biti puno štete. Kad bi već morala na Beograd, bolje bi bilo da nas promaši par km, samo da uslikam formacije, a ne da gledam gromade leda kako padaju.
Područje kuda bi mogle da proću SC večeras:





padavine u oktobru 2024:
AMS Miljakovac 24.4mm
prosek (Vračar) - 54.8mm

padavine u novembru 2024:
AMS Miljakovac - 49.8mm
prosek (Vračar) - 49.6mm

Van mreže laky

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« Odgovor #46 poslato: 11. Jun 2012. u 10:25 »
Do srede ce jos biti nestabilno. Jer stream jos uvek stvara jako smicanje a jugozapadno strujanje donosti toliji vazduh.



Za razliku od prethodna dva dana kada je vazduh u nizim slojevima atmosfere bio dosta suv sada ce biti dosta vlage pa su sanse za pljuskove dosta vece. Nece biti nestabilno kao za vikend ali to ne znaci da grad, jak vetar ili supercelije nisu moguce.
Pljuskovi sa grmljaivnom ocekuju se uglavnom u severnoj polovini Srbije.





Vec sam napisao bice vlage u atmosferi pa ce oblaci donositi vise padavina.



Na visini duvaju jaki vetrovi zbog cega je moguc jak vetar u zoni pljuskova.
Gde bude vise sunca bice i vece sanse za pljuskove koji ce biti jaci.

Van mreže Milosh

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« Odgovor #47 poslato: 11. Jun 2012. u 11:14 »
Još danas i sutra ako zakačimo nešto, a od srijede ponovo počinje period dosadnog i stabilnog vremena. Velika je vjerovatnoća da nam se od vikenda vraćaju prave ljetnje vrućine, a do tada relativno prijatno sa uglavnom Tmax<30°C.


padavine u oktobru 2024:
AMS Miljakovac 24.4mm
prosek (Vračar) - 54.8mm

padavine u novembru 2024:
AMS Miljakovac - 49.8mm
prosek (Vračar) - 49.6mm

Van mreže dikile

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« Odgovor #48 poslato: 11. Jun 2012. u 19:49 »
Veceras je poslednja sansa za neku kisu kod mene od sutra vise sunca i stabilno vreme u narednih 7-10 dana. Na severu ce biti uslova za pljuskove i sutra. Sutra u centralnim i juznim predelima temperatura oko 32C, u sredu do 30C, u cetvrtak i petak malo svezije, a od vikenda ponovo preko 30C

Van mreže Darko_9

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« Odgovor #49 poslato: 11. Jun 2012. u 20:02 »
 ^^

U Vojvodini i Beogradu ove cele nedelje će biti ispod 30 stepeni! Prijatno vreme sa temperaturama u granicama proseka od 26 do 29 stepeni!

Van mreže Kimi

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« Odgovor #50 poslato: 11. Jun 2012. u 21:07 »
Kakve karte za ovu i 3-ću dekadu ovog meseca......brutala.

Šta li će biti tek u 8 mesecu pitam se....

Pakao.
NEVREME NIKADA NE DOLAZI SA JUGOZAPADA !(ovde ??? )

*Znaš onaj osećaj kada u jugozapadnom strujanju oblačnosti vidiš da uveče ili noću seva sa jugozapada ?? NE.......*

Van mreže ciklon

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« Odgovor #51 poslato: 12. Jun 2012. u 00:51 »
Nadam se samo da ce temperature sto se sad crtaju biti ublazene i da nece doci do pravog pakla.
Nije neobicno za jun ali ne bi nam bas to trebalo...


Van mreže laky

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« Odgovor #52 poslato: 12. Jun 2012. u 09:02 »
Jos danas ce nestabilnost biti dovoljno jaka za supercelije. Posle podne ce proci front koji ce doneti hladniji vazduh sa zapada i prekinuti ovu nestbilnost. Sutra slabi i jet stream koji je ovih dana stvarao vrlo jako smicanje.

Nestabilnost za danas izgleda ovako:

Cape danas dostize 2000 a smicanje oko 30m/s!





LCL nizak pa ce i baze oblaka biti niske a bice i 0-1km smicanje koje uvece jaka.



GFS je odlicno predvideo supercelije za vikend a danas daje mogucnost u Vojvodini:





Ima konvegencije i ostaje da cekamo posle podne.



Razvoj se ocekuje u Vojvodini, ako izdrze neki oblaci mozda bude nesto i u Beogradu ali juznije razvoja nece biti.
Posto se ocekuju supercelije velike su sanse i za grad i olujne udara vetra. 
Visoka oblacnost jedino moze da pravi problem ali modeli ne vide neku prepreku za razvoj danas.

ESTOFEX za danas:


A level 2 was issued for parts of Slovenia, Croatia, SE Austria, Hungary, parts of Slovakia, SE Poland, W/SW Ukraine and W-Romania mainly for severe to damaging wind gusts, large hail (an isolated very large hail event possible), a few tornadoes and locally excessive rainfall amounts.
A level 1 surrounds both level 2 areas with large hail, severe wind gusts, an isolated tornado event and locally excessive rainfall likely.
Citat
... N-Italy, Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, Hungary, Slovakia, W-Romania and parts of the Ukraine ...

Once again, overnight's convection plays an important role in exact DMC evolution. Latest satellite/radar data indicates a well anticipated (WRF) cluster of storms over S-Switzerland and numerous upslope bands of showers/thunderstorms over far N-Italy/S-Austria (as of 21Z). This convection continues to build northeastwards with a decrease in strength expected during the start of the forecast (still dampening the rate of diabatic heating over parts of the Alps and Germany due to anvil cirrus contamination). Further south and east, no significant overnight cluster is currently forecast (despite numerous smaller-scale thunderstorm clusters), so areas along and south of analyzed boundary should start with good insolation (here: level 2 area). Current thinking is that the main thunderstorm activity continues or evolves along the consolidating warm front over SE Austria, Slovenia and Croatia around noon with a rapid NE-ward propagation thereafter. Thunderstorm coverage increases during the afternoon hours, as dynamics and thermodynamics both increase and we expect numerous, large storm clusters to evolve out of this activity.

During the more discret stage of forecast storms (SE Austria, Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary), well organized multicells and a few long lived supercells are forecast with large hail and severe wind gusts the primary risk. Given long/straight hodographs, both splitting supercells and bowing line segments are likely with swaths of damaging wind gusts and an isolated extreme hail event. The rainfall risk remains hampered by rapid storm motion, but local flash flooding can't be ruled out (e.g. during cell merging). The final tornado risk depends on how strong the LL depression evolves and therefore assists in a backing LL wind field with augmented SRH-1. Current idea is that Croatia and parts of C/S Hungary see highest LL shear values. However, any boundary can locally provide strong helicity, so an isolated tornado risk can be ruled out nowhere. The overall tornado risk probably increases during the evening and first night hours, as strengthening LL shear and lowering LCLs go hand to hand. Betimes, storm-produced outflows probably merge into a cold pool driven MCS event (most likely over NE Hungary, E-Slovakia into W-Ukraine and W-Romania). Severe wind gusts, isolated large hail/an isolated tornado event and heavy rain accompany that feature. Given anticipated strength of shear and incoming forcing, we decided to upgrade parts of the level 1 area to a level 2.

Van mreže Milosh

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« Odgovor #53 poslato: 12. Jun 2012. u 09:55 »
Vojvodina će danas biti u centru pažnje. Beograd bi još i mogao nešto da zakači s obzriom na strujanje, ali ne dajem velike šanse. Južnije su jako male šanse za ikakve razvoje.
Hvata me neko loše raspoloženje kad pogledam prognozu za narednih 10-ak dana. Al' dobro, poslije sunca uvijek dođe kiša! :)


padavine u oktobru 2024:
AMS Miljakovac 24.4mm
prosek (Vračar) - 54.8mm

padavine u novembru 2024:
AMS Miljakovac - 49.8mm
prosek (Vračar) - 49.6mm

Van mreže Dejo

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« Odgovor #54 poslato: 12. Jun 2012. u 10:10 »
Al' dobro, poslije sunca uvijek dođe kiša! :)

Bilo bi dobro da padne i neka kiša pre tog sunca :D

Van mreže ivkeBgd

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« Odgovor #55 poslato: 12. Jun 2012. u 12:45 »
Od nedelje nam stiže vrela Afrika,proključaćemo još u junu,a gde su još 2 meseca... :nelupaj:

Van mreže Somborac

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« Odgovor #56 poslato: 12. Jun 2012. u 12:59 »
Forumasi,moze jedno pitanje u prognozi.  :D
Trebao bi na neki rostilj oko 19h hoce li biti suvo? :D

Van mreže Stefan Valjevo

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« Odgovor #57 poslato: 12. Jun 2012. u 13:58 »
Forumasi,moze jedno pitanje u prognozi.  :D
Trebao bi na neki rostilj oko 19h hoce li biti suvo? :D
Kod tebe neverujem, ali kod mene će najverovatnije. Tvoj kraj će danas ceo dan imati lokalne pljuskove, a kod mene će biti (uglavnom) suvo.

Van mreže Profiamater

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« Odgovor #58 poslato: 12. Jun 2012. u 23:46 »
Konačno dolazi nekoliko dana sa prijatnim temperaturama, sutra u četv. i petak temp. će biti prijatne (uz "najhladniji" četvrtak) ali već od subote ponovo temp. u porastu.

Čini mi se da će topao/vruć vazduh stići malo brže nego što to daju modeli i npr. za Beograd očekujem da u subotu Tmax, ako ne izostane makar i blago strujanje u prizemlju, već bude iznad 30.0C a u nedelju svakako značajno iznad 30C i uz nastavak vrućine  :ufff: početkom sledeće sedmice...

Van mreže laky

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« Odgovor #59 poslato: 13. Jun 2012. u 09:41 »
Jos danas postoji mala sansa za pljuskove u severnoj polovini Srbije. Vece sanse su da ce ostati suvo ali ipak mozda zaluta i neki oblak. I danas se zavrsava ovaj perod nestabilnog vremena.
Pritisak ce biti u porastu a ciklon iznad Atlantika i zapadne Evrope ce usmeravati topao vazduh iz Afrike ka Evropi.





Meni ovaj topli talas za sada ne igleda nesto strasno. Modeli tek tamo od utorka srede vide 35C stepeni a do tada se moze dosta toga promeniti.