Jos danas ce nestabilnost biti dovoljno jaka za supercelije. Posle podne ce proci front koji ce doneti hladniji vazduh sa zapada i prekinuti ovu nestbilnost. Sutra slabi i jet stream koji je ovih dana stvarao vrlo jako smicanje.
Nestabilnost za danas izgleda ovako:
Cape danas dostize 2000 a smicanje oko 30m/s!
LCL nizak pa ce i baze oblaka biti niske a bice i 0-1km smicanje koje uvece jaka.
GFS je odlicno predvideo supercelije za vikend a danas daje mogucnost u Vojvodini:
Ima konvegencije i ostaje da cekamo posle podne.
Razvoj se ocekuje u Vojvodini, ako izdrze neki oblaci mozda bude nesto i u Beogradu ali juznije razvoja nece biti.
Posto se ocekuju supercelije velike su sanse i za grad i olujne udara vetra.
Visoka oblacnost jedino moze da pravi problem ali modeli ne vide neku prepreku za razvoj danas.
ESTOFEX za danas:
A level 2 was issued for parts of Slovenia, Croatia, SE Austria, Hungary, parts of Slovakia, SE Poland, W/SW Ukraine and W-Romania mainly for severe to damaging wind gusts, large hail (an isolated very large hail event possible), a few tornadoes and locally excessive rainfall amounts.
A level 1 surrounds both level 2 areas with large hail, severe wind gusts, an isolated tornado event and locally excessive rainfall likely.
... N-Italy, Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, Hungary, Slovakia, W-Romania and parts of the Ukraine ...
Once again, overnight's convection plays an important role in exact DMC evolution. Latest satellite/radar data indicates a well anticipated (WRF) cluster of storms over S-Switzerland and numerous upslope bands of showers/thunderstorms over far N-Italy/S-Austria (as of 21Z). This convection continues to build northeastwards with a decrease in strength expected during the start of the forecast (still dampening the rate of diabatic heating over parts of the Alps and Germany due to anvil cirrus contamination). Further south and east, no significant overnight cluster is currently forecast (despite numerous smaller-scale thunderstorm clusters), so areas along and south of analyzed boundary should start with good insolation (here: level 2 area). Current thinking is that the main thunderstorm activity continues or evolves along the consolidating warm front over SE Austria, Slovenia and Croatia around noon with a rapid NE-ward propagation thereafter. Thunderstorm coverage increases during the afternoon hours, as dynamics and thermodynamics both increase and we expect numerous, large storm clusters to evolve out of this activity.
During the more discret stage of forecast storms (SE Austria, Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary), well organized multicells and a few long lived supercells are forecast with large hail and severe wind gusts the primary risk. Given long/straight hodographs, both splitting supercells and bowing line segments are likely with swaths of damaging wind gusts and an isolated extreme hail event. The rainfall risk remains hampered by rapid storm motion, but local flash flooding can't be ruled out (e.g. during cell merging). The final tornado risk depends on how strong the LL depression evolves and therefore assists in a backing LL wind field with augmented SRH-1. Current idea is that Croatia and parts of C/S Hungary see highest LL shear values. However, any boundary can locally provide strong helicity, so an isolated tornado risk can be ruled out nowhere. The overall tornado risk probably increases during the evening and first night hours, as strengthening LL shear and lowering LCLs go hand to hand. Betimes, storm-produced outflows probably merge into a cold pool driven MCS event (most likely over NE Hungary, E-Slovakia into W-Ukraine and W-Romania). Severe wind gusts, isolated large hail/an isolated tornado event and heavy rain accompany that feature. Given anticipated strength of shear and incoming forcing, we decided to upgrade parts of the level 1 area to a level 2.
