Tema: Maj 2013.

[ivkeBgd]

  Mislim da su danas karte drugačije,sve je to umanjeno,a imamo stabilizaciju i temperature oko 30C,malo fali i da nam afrički vazduh stigne,samo nam to još fali... :nelupaj:

[dikile]

Da napisam i ja vidjenje situacije za naredni period.

Sutra jutro veoma hladno, pa je ponegde u kotlinama moguća pojava i slabog prizemnog mraza. Jutarnja od 0C do 8C , a tokom dana toplije u odnosu na danas sa temperaturom od 22C do 26C, U četvrtak sunčano i jos toplije sa temperaturama od 25C do 29C, a ponegde i do celih 30C. Petak nam donosi jos topliji ali vlazniji vazduh iz Mediteran pa će popodne biti uslova za pljuskove i grmljavinu. Temperature od 27C do 32C. Za vikend i početkom naredne sedmice temperature oko 30C sa popodnevnim nestabilnostima južno od Beograda.  U subotu do 33-34C, a u nedelju par stepeni niža temperatura.

[dukej]

Da li neko može da mi kaže koji će pravac i smer vetra biti sutra u Bačkoj? Ako je neko od forumaša trenutno prisutan na forumu, zamolio bih ga da mi što pre kaže mišljenje jer sad moram da odlučim neke stvari za koje mi je jako bitna ova informacija...

[Dejo]

Jugoistočni vetar - slab do umeren.

[dukej]

Hvala!

[Marko_bg]

На РТС-у су најавили кишу за сутра увече. Међутим ВРФ-НММ модел види кишу тек у петак средином дана углавном у северној половини земље, док за Бгд даје око 4-5 мм падавина. У кошавском подручју сутра и у петак дуваће и појачан југоисточни ветар.

[ocelot]

kakvo će biti strujanje sutra?

[Kimi]

Strujanje će biti jugozapadno uglavnom.

[ocelot]

uh, znači da ne očekujem ništa svejedno, biću u pripravnosti pošto vidim da je izdrato upozorenje za istok, hvala!

[Dejo]

ESTOFEX prognoza




A level 1 and level 2 were issued for Montenegro, Albania, Southern Serbia, Macedonia, and parts of Bulgaria and Greece mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Italy, for Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Northern Serbia, and parts of Hungary and Romania mainly for large hail and excessive precipitation.

...Italy, the Balkans, Hungary, Romania...

A long history of warm air advection over the Balkan Peninsula and the arrival of the pronounced main trough from the Southwest provide an interesting but also very complex setup.
Starting with a diagnosis of Thursday's state, the boundary layer was uniformly warm across the Balkans, but big dew point variations (e.g. from 4°C to 18°C over Bulgaria and Southern Romania) and the complex terrain cause some headache when it comes to the judgement of the amount and depth of the low-level moisture. However, in general the latest dew point readings were in the range of or even higher than the model forecasts, and a plot with passing mid-level clouds with a little rain overnight followed by some hours of insolation on Friday morning may indeed result in a quick moisture build-up.
Staying on the safe side, at least between 500 and 1000 J/kg (or locally more) of CAPE can be expected to build up on Friday. The first round of thunderstorms will fire up around noon over orographic features across the Balkans and may become quite widespread in the course of the afternoon, as plentiful QG lift ahead of the trough will facilitate convective initiation. In the Northern half of the level 1 area, deep-layer shear is weak with 10-15 m/s, hence large hail with stronger pulse storms and heavy rain (precipitable water is forecast to be around 30 mm) will be the main threat in Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Northern Serbia. Further South, deep-layer shear increases to 20-25 m/s, but also the capping becomes stronger. This means that a somewhat lower storm coverage but a better organization into multi- and supercells with a risk of large hail and severe wind gusts can be expected. A small level 2 area was issued around Macedonia, where strong vertical wind shear and confidence in convective initiation sufficiently overlap. A higher coverage of hail events and even one or two very large hail falls (~5 cm) are possible in this region.
The second round of thunderstorms can be expected further upstream in the range of the trough axis, which also marks the transition to cold air advection and significant drying. Convective activity may start quite early over Central Italy and move northeastward. If there is enough insolation and if patches of a milder and moister boundary layer can hold their ground in the wake of the Apennin mountains beneath cooling and drying mid-levels, a few hundred J/kg of CAPE could build up under increasing deep-layer shear (15-20 m/s). Large hail seems to be an option, and with very favourable mesoscale developments also a severe wind gust (if the drying mid-levels sufficiently enhance evaporative cooling) or a tornado (if the boundary layer moisture resists the mixing processes long enough) cannot be ruled out. However, all in all the whole setup is too conditional to take any measures beyond an expansion of the Western edge of the level 1 area over Italian grounds.
Towards evening and into the night, convection over the Adriatic Sea and the Balkan states will gradually merge and continue to move northeastward into Hungary and Romania, while it starts to weaken.

[Ljubiša]

A na portalu je upravo taj južni deo stavljen pod žutu boju (gde je ESTOFEX stavio level 2). Ko će biti u pravu?
Serbianmeteo ...

RHMZ Srbije ...

[dikile]

Ja sam odgovoran za Meteo-Alarm. Tako da ako bude greške da znate ko je pogrešio 

[laky]

Estofex je dao level 2 iskljucivo zbog smicanja ali na karti padavina u jugoistocnoj Srbiji skoro da i nema padavina. Po meni vece su sanse da se nista ne razvoije ali budu li se stvorilo dovoljno uslova moze da bukne jaka oluja. Smicanje ce biti jace na jugu i istoku Srbije dok severnije jaca tek posle 15h gde ce biti moguce visecelije.
Ostali predeli realna prognoza, u severnoj polovini Srbije (kao i Bosni, Hrvatskoj i Madjarskoj) ima puno vlage na visini sto svara velike uslove za grad i obilne padavine dok u juznoj polovini Srbije ima suvih slojeva vazduha na visini pa su vece sanse za jake udare vetra.

[Kimi]

Nema smisla ne zableležiti -5°C na 850Hpa u centralnoj Evropi,posebno krajem maja:






Što se tiče sutrašnjeg dana,GFS mogućnost za nestabilnosti vidi samo na severu Vojvodine,dok WRF-NMM daje uslove u čitavoj zemlji,izuzev juga i jugozapada.Glavni razvoji kod zapadnih suseda,gde je moguća i superćelija.

U ponedeljak i utorak postoji dosta jako smicanje (u utorak i do 25 M/S),ali je pitanje hoće li biti nekakvih razvoja.

[Kimi]

Kako lepi izlazi modela večeras,evo EC-a sa 995 Hpa nad nama:

Definitivno je dosta promenjiv period pred nama. Iako bi moglo drastično zahladneti,više bih voleo ipak da hladnoća ostane zapadnije od nas,a da se mi nađemo na granici tople i hladne vazušne mase.Zaista sam željan jačih razvoja 

[ciklon]

EC istrajan u tome da nas od sredine sledece nedelje ocekuje promenljivo vreme sa cestim padavinama i dosta nizom temperaturom.
Moguce je tu svasta ali tek za dva-tri dana cemo imati precizniju prognozu, za sada lepo izgleda.

[sale pn]

Iskreno se nadam da ce od toga biti nesto. Potrebna je kisa itekako tamo gde nije pala.

[zec]

Sutra ce u Hrvatskoj biti itekako uslova za superceliju, uz jake parametre nestabilnosti, te prisutno smicanje.
I kod nas sutra postoje šanse za pljuskove i grmljavine, ne svuda. Tako nešto 'njuši' i naš finorezolucijski WRF-NMM. Na zapadu Srbije i u delu Vojvodine ima slabijeg smicanja od oko 10m/s. Cape index na zapadu Vojvodine dostiže 1400 J/kg, tako da ako bude bilo pljuskova tamo, bice i grada. Ako i razvoja ne bude, krajnji sever Vojvodine mogao bi da zakači sistem iz Madjarske koje ce prelaziti preko nje, a bice poreklom iz Hrvatske. Naravno, ti oblaci ce biti slabiji nego u Hrvatskoj.

[laky]

Veceras nas ocekuje jos jedan front koji ce stici sa zapada ali u vecini krajeva Srbije ce doneti samo vetar.
Estofex prognoza izgleda ovako (uz malo prosireno podrucje sa mogucim olujama):



A level 1 was issued for SE Germany, Czechia, Austria, Slovenia, NE Italy, Croatia, W Hungary, parts of Bosnia, Serbia and Bulgaria mainly for large hail.

...central Europe...

East of the mentioned cold front sufficient CAPE should build, helped by moisture advection and the mid level cooling from adiabatic lifting. The front is is very well delineated by a temperature drop and strong convergence and deformation. Ahead of the front, no more than 15 m/s of 0-6 km shear is predicted. At and behind the front, north of the Alps, 200-400 m²/s² of 0-3 km SREH is forecast. If a storm grows in such environment it can easily acquire a rotating structure favorable for large hail growth and severe wind gusts. It appears the LCL height is not going to be very low before the front. Over Austria, föhn effect seems to produce high LCL (2000 m) even in the rough GFS model. Therefore it seems the tornado risk, unless some supercell could hover over the surface front, is low. While forcing, instability and shear all seem favorable, a concern is that the orientation of shear and storm motion is almost parallel to the front. In practice this often turns into a linear system or a messy, destructive environment to convection. To the southeast this is not much different, but LCL heights should be over 2000 m there and more moisture pulled in from the south. Shear is around 15 m/s all the way to Bulgaria and favorable for organisation of storms, likely into a linear system over Hungary.

Kao sto je i zec rekao predeli gde moze doci do razvoja su zapadna Srbija i Vojvodina gde su i uslovi nabolji. Front ce samo zakaciti Srbiju pa je tesko reci da li ce doci do razvoja jer nema puno vlage u atmosferi.

[ivkeBgd]

Ovako zanimljiv razvoj pred nama a vas nigde nema... Od sutra temperatura lagano pada,od srede imaćemo uslove za padavine,a od petka i hladno vreme za ovo doba godine.Tako sada stoje stvari uz zaključak promenljivo