EC model je bio izuzetno precizan što se tiče prognoze temperature u centralnim i istočnim delovima Kanade i u severnim i severoistočnim krajevima USA -još 14. novembra je odlično najavio ono što se i desilo. To naravno ne znači da "sve oči" treba da budu uprte samo u ECMWF ali u aktuelnoj situaciji Amerikanci hvale EC a na animaciji se vidi prognoza od 14. novembra.
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Long Lasting Cold
With blocking high pressure aloft over eastern Alaska and northwest Canada, a direct pipeline of cold air came from Siberia to near the North Pole, then southward into Canada and the U.S., particularly the Plains and Midwest. While not as cold in magnitude, the arctic surges have also swept into parts of the East, though there was a brief mild spell in between the first two cold snaps along the East Coast.
Here is the general timing of each arctic cold surge, and when the coldest air may ease:
- First arctic surge: Spread into the East last week (November 11-15).
- Second arctic surge: Blasted through the East, Midwest, and South through early Thursday (November 16-20). For parts of the mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and the Middle Atlantic States, this was the coldest of the surges, with numerous daily record lows broken.
- Third arctic surge: Reached the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest Thursday, then slid east across the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast on Friday. It did not press nearly as far south as the first and second surges did.
- Cold relief: Relief began in the Rockies, then expanded into the southern Plains and Southeast Wednesday and Thursday. Midwest and Northeast relief arrives this weekend.
Highs in the Twin Cities have been below freezing every day since Nov. 10, an 11-day stretch. This rivals the longest November subfreezing streaks on record there. The high on Nov. 17 was only 15 degrees, which is colder than their climatologically coldest average highs in January (23 degrees).
According to the National Weather Service, Chicago tied the record for longest stretch of subfreezing daily high temperatures, with seven days, for the month of November and set a record for consecutive hours below freezing for November with 180 hours.
