Tema: Ciklon "Filip", 23 - 27. jun 2014.

[Dejo]

Nakon ciklone Una usledilo je par stabilnih dana, međutim u utorak 24. juna hladan front spustio se sa severozapada Evrope do Balkanskog poluostrva. Formirao se plitak ciklon iznad severne Italije koji se tokom srede i četvrtka premešta i preko naših krajeva.



Kao posledica toga nestabilnosti su bile veoma izražene, a karte su pokazivale ekstremne mogućnosti nevremena.







Estofex prognoza je takođe bila najozbiljnija, level 3

A level 2 and level 3 were issued for Central Italy across the Central Balkans into much of Romania and Bulgaria for severe wind gusts, large hail, tornadoes and to a lesser extent for excessive precipitation.


... Italy across the Balkans into Romania and Bulgaria ...

A pronounced Saharan elevated mixed layer moves northeastward, sampled by many of the Tuesday 12z soundings (e.g. Brindisi, Pratica di Mare, Ajaccio, Decimomannu, Trapani, Tunis, Dar El Beida). Its Northern fringes overspread increasingly rich low-level moisture in the range of the frontal boundary. Over Italy and much of the Balkans, surface dewpoints can be expected to rise to around 20C on Wednesday. This results in moderate to high CAPE (1000-2000 J/kg, locally even more) under exceptionally strong 0-6 km shear (25 to 40 m/s) and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity (in large areas higher than 300 m²/s², with simulated maxima up to 600 m²/s²). Large-scale lift in the left exit region of the jet streak overspreads a belt from Northern Italy into the Northern Balkans, Hungary and Romania, while it is mostly absent further South.

A few storms may still be active (or already form) in the morning. More and more storms are forecast to initiate along old outflow boundaries or over orographic features in the course of the day. A quick organization into supercells with large or even extremely large hail and severe downbursts can be expected. Strongly enhanced 0-1 km shear and helicity over a large area, especially from Bosnia into Northern Bulgaria, indicates also a risk of several tornadoes, a few of which may be strong.
Later in the afternoon, storms will likely merge into a squall line that races eastward and poses a primary threat of widespread severe to extreme wind gusts, sustained by a forming Westerly low-level jet (20-25 m/s at 850 hPa). The bordering region of Bulgaria and Romania seems to be at the highest risk of being in the path of such a feature, and despite remaining uncertainties, the exceptional overlap of instability and shear warrant a level 3 for this region. Further convection, often in form of supercells with an ongoing severe weather risk, may continue to initiate all evening long, as outflow boundaries are expected to push Southward into Southern Serbia and Southern Bulgaria. In addition, prolonged periods of heavy precipitation pose a threat of flash floods with larger clusters that form.
Activity will slowly fade overnight as the storms either move onto the Black Sea or encounter a strenghtening cap beneath the elevated mixed layer towards the South.

Further North, storms may be active through much of the forecast period in the vicinity of the frontal zone over Northern Italy, the Northern Balkans and Northern and Central Romania. With an almost front-parallel motion, very high rainfall accumulations and resulting flooding seem to be the dominant risk. Areas of particular concern are the Western and Southern Carpathian mountains in Romania. Current thinking is that this activity will be partly embedded and may decouple from the surface in case it is undercut by too cool air. However, if more discrete storms manage to form and stay surface-based, large hail and severe wind gusts may occur as well.

Padavina će najviše biti u severnim delovima zemlje tokom srede, a i drugde gde lokalno bude jačeg nevremena praćenog obilnim padavinama.



Tokom četvrtka padavina će biti južno od Beograda, a u petak još samo na jugoistoku zemlje i u planinskim predelima.

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[Ljubiša]

Na terenu je to izgledalo ovako ...
Kula (Bačka) ...
http://www.serbianmeteo.com/forum/index.php?topic=3358.0
Čestereg (Banat) ...
http://www.serbianmeteo.com/forum/index.php?topic=3360.0

[sale pn]

Preliminarna lista sa kolicinom padavina od ovog ciklona:

Valjevo 47.0mm
Sombor 46.1mm
Veliko Gradiste 46.0mm
Beograd 42.3mm
Crni Vrh 39.1mm
Kraljevo 37.0mm
Palic 36.8mm
Kragujevac 34.9mm
Nis 34.7mm
Smederevska Palanka 33.8mm
Krusevac 33.0mm
Beograd Surcin 29.0mm
Pozega 28.4mm
Cuprija 28.0mm
Zajecar 28.0mm
Novi Sad 27.0mm
Zrenjanin 27.0mm
Sremska Mitrovica 24.6mm
Kopaonik 24.5mm
Dimitrovgrad 24.1mm
Zlatibor 22.3mm
Loznica 21.6mm
Banatski Karlovac 21.5mm
Sjenica 20.3mm
Kikinda 19.1mm
Negotin 17.7mm
Kursumlija 13.0mm
Leskovac 6.0mm
Vranje 4.3mm

Jos da dodam da je u Paracinu ukupno palo 35.5mm.

EDIT: Tek sad videh da se padavine racunaju od 25. do 27. juna, a sta cemo sa 23. i 24. junom? Te padavine bi isto trebale da se racunaju jer su takodje u sklopu ovog ciklona.

[Milosh]

Da, u pravu si, od ponedjeljka 23. juna smo pod uticajem ovog ciklona.

[Stefan Valjevo]

Okreni, obrni, Valjevo rekorder i posle ovog ciklona. Preksinoć je palo 13mm vodenog taloga, ja sam izmerio 12mm u prvih dva sata padavina. Prvi dan je bilo najviše padavina u Valjevu 6mm za desetak minuta, drugi dan jedva 1mm, treći dan 24mm, a četvrti dan 15mm. Podatke koje sam dao za četvrtak 26. jun su za 24h od ponoći do ponoći, a u četvrtak sam lično merio padavine. U Valjevu je do sada u junu palo oko 124mm vodenog taloga.

[Zika]

Ovako je to izgledalo iz Melenaca




Video
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oEL1KFlF6ZQ" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oEL1KFlF6ZQ</a>

2min posle najjaceg intenziteta, oblak prolazi a sunce se probija

[Dejo]

Ukupne količine padavina od ciklona Filip:


Prostorni raspored padavina: