Evo i delimično prevedenog teksta, čisto da se argumentuje njihova prognoza. Level tri je u prognozi izostao zbog ne dovoljno velikog smicanja usled slabijeg strujanja u srednjoj troposferi. Da je kojim slučajem DLS (smicanje u 0-6km sloju) preko 20-25 m/s na širem području, stavili bi bez problema level tri. Takvu situaciju je imao Zagreb prošli petak. Najveća pretnja po njima za ove krajeve jesu višećelije, ali i moguće superćelije prvenstveno u našoj zemlji usled lokalnih zona jačeg smicanja.
"Compared to the previous day, mid-tropospheric flow will weaken slightly, resulting in lesser shear and less storm organisation. Nevertheless, 10 to 15 m/s of DLS will suffice for multicells. Over Serbia, models simulate even pockets of stronger shear, so that transient supercells are not ruled out. "
Oluje će biti inicijalizovane preko različitih procesa, počev od olujnog fronta od postojećih Cb-ova ujutru, pa sve do oblasti konvergencije i visinskog fronta o čemu sam pisao ranije danas. U prevodu, imaćemo najverovatnije više tura nepogoda usled različitih dinamičkih procesa koji će se odvijati ceo dan. Najveća pretnja je velika količina padavina.
"Storms will be initiated along the pre-existing outflow boundaries, developing convergence zones as the shallow low develops south of the Carpathians, and along the surging cold front in the evening hours. Thus, numerous rounds of storms are possible, which may exacerbate the heavy rainfall risk over some of the locations. Lvl 2 is issued for an area with the best overlap of ingredients and to the south of the outflow boundary that may be laid out by the ongoing convection. Morning analysis of the situation will likely allow for a more precise location of the highest threat area. "
Takođe su u tekstu razmotrili i ovaj sistem oluja u Mađarskoj, ali i nepogoda kojih bi bilo sve do jutra. Moguć problem po razvoje bi bio sloj inhibicije usled ostatka oblačnosti i prolaska oluja. Mada sumnjam da će to biti veći problem u ovakvoj brutalnoj sinoptičkoj situaciji.
"At the time of the forecast issuance, a large quasi-linear convective system is progressing through Hungary eastwards. As of now, it is unknown to what extent will the overnight convection influence the development during the day. Nevertheless, it seems likely that some storms will be ongoing over the area also in the morning hours and that numerous outflow boundaries will be laid out by previous activity. While outflow boundaries may become a focus for the storm development later in the day, lingering cloudiness and remains of the storms may inhibit solar heating."
