Drže se vrlo ozbiljni parametri za sutra, ovako po energiji, strujanju i smicanja situacija jako liči na 5. avgust prošle godine. Nisu se naravno modeli složili oko pozicije tih najjačih parametara, ali negde će da eksplodira, tu nema sumnje. ICON i HD-ovi daju tu zonu sa najvećim potencijalom tu preko Beograda i Vojvodine.
GFS je sa druge strane potpuno miran za taj deo uz dosta slojaste oblasti, dok forsira istočnu Srbiju i dalje ka Rumuniji. Ostali modeli uglavnom lutaju negde između te dve opcije. U svakom slučaju, deluje da se najžešći parametri poklapaju tamo oko tromeđe sa Bugarskom i Rumunijom, deo oko Kladova.
Videćemo, mnogo toga zavisi od tajminga prolaska slojaste oblačnosti, ali barem nekoliko jakih superćelija ili bow echo sistema na teritoriji Srbije su skoro pa izvesni. Reklo bi se da su najmanje šanse tamo gde je 21. maja bilo najžešće, na jugozapadu zemlje.
Ukoliko ESTOFEX izda prognozu, očekujem da to izgleda ovako nekako (ugrubo sam nacrtao preko telefona):
Miloše. Pogodio si faktički gotovo 100% gde će estofex ucrtati trojku. Ti si ovim obrnuo igricu u meteorologiji. Samo su moj kraj stavili u dvojku umesto keca kao što si predvidjao. Medjutim, u suštini to je to.
Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 03 Jun 2024 06:00 to Tue 04 Jun 2024 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 02 Jun 2024 21:03
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 3 was issued for central - E Serbia and SW Romania mainly for very large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.
A level 2 was issued for Serbia, SE Hungary, E Bosnia, NW Bulgaria and Romania mainly for large to very large hail, severe wind gusts and to the lesser degree for tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for E Spain mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail.
A level 1 was issued for parts of N Africa mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail.
A level 1 was issued for S Germany, Austria, S/E Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia and Slovenia mainly for heavy rainfall.
A level 1 was issued for extreme N Russia mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and to the lesser degree for tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued across NW Russia mainly for heavy rainfall.
A level 1 was issued across central Russia mainly for severe wind gusts.
DISCUSSION
... Spain ...
Again, an easterly upslope flow will be induced by a heat low building over the interior Spain, enhancing vertical wind shear over the area and creating an area of CAPE. ECMWF shows rather skinny CAPE profiles with high bases, in contrast to ICON with lower bases and fatter CAPE profiles. Models are quite sure about the initiation of scattered storms. Given around 15 m/s of 0-6 km bulks shear, expect well-organised storms, including some supercells. Both severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible with stronger storms.
... N Africa ...
Isolated to scaterred high-based storms will form in the environment of around 15 m/s 0-6 km bulk shear and Inverted-V profiles, promoting deep cold pools and effective lift along them. Severe wind gusts will be primary hazard, followed by isolated large hail.
... Serbia, extreme S/SE Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria ...
A mid to upper tropospheric low will travel from Italy to Hungary. A strong synoptic-scale lift is forecast on the forward flank of low, which will combine with a left exit region of the jet streak. The strongest forcing will spread over Croatia, Bosnia, N Serbia into Hungary. At the lower levels, the mesoscale lift will be provided by a wavy frontal boundary stretching from Bosnia through N Serbia into Hungary at noon, one part moving E towards NW Romania and one part stalling across S Serbia. Further boundaries (drylines) may be provided by the mountain-induced downslope winds pushing further into lowlands. Local orography will also serve as an initiation mechanism.
Ahead of the frontal boundary, abundant low-level moisture with mixing ratios between 10 and 13 g/kg will overlap with 6.5 to 7.5 K/km mid-tropospheric lapse rates, yielding MLCAPE values ranging from 1 to 2.5 kJ/kg. Long and curved forecast hodographs suggest a potential for well-organized, long-lived storms with 0-6 km bulk shear between 20 and 25 m/s and 0-3 km bulk shear up to 20 m/s. The primary convective mode will likely be supercells. A squall line with potential evolution into a bow echo is more likely in the northern part of the highlighted area, where the strongest mesoscale forcing is predicted. The slow-moving nature of the frontal boundary and of the drylines suggest that at least in the southern part of the area storms will remain in the form of discrete supercells. Here, the arrival of a dry layer of air in the mid-troposphere suggests that storms may struggle with initiation, especially later on. This thinking is supported by the output of high-resolution, convection-allowing models.
Numerous rounds of severe storms are possible, with first storms expected already in the morning hours and activity persisting till late evening / early night. Very large hail and damaging wind gusts are expected with stronger storms. Hail can reach considerable sizes given elongated hodographs in 1-3 km segment and substantial CAPE below -10 deg C. Locally, forecast hodographs show pronounced low-level curvature, 0-1 km bulk shear exceeding 10 m/s with 0-500 m SRH around 100 m2/s2 in the evening hours between SE Serbia and SW Romania. A tornado threat will be present there and in the timeframe of 15 - 21 UTC. Around and after 21 UTC, the storms will become elevated, with still persisting (very) large hail and severe wind gust threats.
Some uncertainty remains with the degree of morning convection initiated over the Adriatic coastline and the mountainous areas. The anvil and stratiform precipitation remnants of these storms may decrease the diurnal heating over some of these areas. Further complication can come from the storms that will likely initiate between 9 to 12 UTC over the area (e.g. mountains over Bulgaria or Serbia), before the best CAPE/shear overlap materializes. These storms can further modify the environment or leave local outflow boundaries that can serve as trigger for subsequent development.
Despite these uncertainties, confidence remains concerning a high likelihood of (extremely) severe weather in a belt from E Serbia to SW Romania. The decision to issue Lvl 3 is supported also by the automatic severe weather probability output (ARCHaMo), which shows more than a 20% probability of very large hail in the 40 km radius across a large area. Lvl 2 surrounds the Lvl 3 for the same threats (hail threat increasing to S and wind threat to N), but with lower expected coverage of (extremely) severe weather.
... S Germany, Austria, S/E Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia ...
Situation from previous days will continue with heavy rainstorms expected across the area in the environment of low LCLs, rather slow storm motion and abundant CAPE in the warm part of the cloud. Attention must be paid in the areas, where high precipitation sums have been recorded recently, namely S Germany and SW Czechia.
... W to central Russia ...
A short-wave trough is forecast to move across the domain. South of the trough, a stronger wind field is forecast, combined with drier boundary-layer. While models give relatively weak CI signals, a linear segment may be initiated by the cold front, resulting in a swath of isolated severe wind gusts. Further N, slower moving storms are forecast with predominant threat of heavy rainfall. Large hail may occur with stronger updrafts in either of the parts of the Lvl 1.
... far N Russia ...
Several rounds of storms are likely to form along the warm front. During the day, surface based storms are possible. Curved hodographs are forecast with 0-6 km bulks hear up to 15 m/s. Expect well-organised storms, including some supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. Tornadoes are not ruled out, especially along and just N of the warm front, where the strongest low-level shear is forecast. Storms will transition to the elevated mode overnight and shift E of the forecast area.
